Silver's Record COMEX Deliveries and Structural Deficit Test Macro Resilience

Silver changed hands at $75.95 per ounce on Monday, barely budging from levels that reflect a market caught between competing gravitational forces. The precious metal managed a gain of just under one percent, but the shallow uptick masks a deeper conflict: a physical supply crunch that has intensified to historic proportions versus a monetary environment that refuses to cooperate.

474 Million Ounces Delivered — and Counting

The COMEX is witnessing an unprecedented wave of physical metal withdrawals. In 2025, a staggering 474 million ounces were called for delivery. The pace accelerated into early 2026, with another 165 million ounces pulled from exchange vaults in the first quarter alone. The result: the market has been trading in backwardation since the third quarter of 2025 — spot prices persistently above futures, a textbook signal of acute near-term scarcity.

Both Washington and Beijing have classified silver as a critical mineral, curbing export flexibility and deepening the shortage for the rest of the world. The commodity’s strategic status has reinforced the physical squeeze, making it harder for industrial users to secure supply outside domestic markets.

A Sixth Consecutive Deficit on the Horizon

Analysts project a supply shortfall of roughly 46.3 million ounces for 2026. That would mark the sixth straight year of global deficit, following five consecutive years of consumption outpacing new mine output. Above-ground inventories have been drawn down by an estimated 762 million ounces since 2021 — a cumulative drain that leaves little buffer for any further demand spikes.

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The solar industry, which accounts for about 16 percent of annual silver consumption, is actively reducing the amount of silver used per cell as high prices force substitution. Yet new demand engines are emerging. Artificial intelligence infrastructure, solid-state batteries for electric vehicles, 5G networks, and medical devices all require more silver than the technologies they replace. On balance, the deficit remains entrenched.

Geopolitics and the Fed Pull in Opposite Directions

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain stalled, and the Straits of Hormuz have been largely blocked since February 28 after the United States and Israel launched an air campaign that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and 20 percent of its liquefied natural gas normally transit the waterway, which previously saw about 3,000 vessels per month. That figure has collapsed to roughly 5 percent of normal traffic. Oil prices briefly surged above $109 per barrel, fanning inflation fears.

For silver, the geopolitical shock has produced a paradoxical response. Instead of rallying as a safe haven, the white metal has traded like a risk asset, developing a strong negative correlation with crude. Investors worry that higher energy costs will force the Federal Reserve to keep rates elevated — a headwind for non-yielding assets.

Those worries are well-founded. The April CPI came in hot, and money markets have fully priced out any rate cuts for 2026. Some traders are even betting on a rate hike before year-end. The Fed last left the benchmark rate in a range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent, with four committee members dissenting — a level of internal division not seen since the early 1990s. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari explicitly raised the possibility of further tightening, citing the Hormuz conflict as a wildcard.

The Gold-Silver Ratio Shifts

Despite the macro drag, silver has outperformed gold in relative terms. The gold-silver ratio slipped to 59.24 on Monday from 60.29 on Friday, indicating silver is gaining ground. Since the start of the year, the white metal has risen 6.85 percent. In May the ratio stood near 59, well below the modern long-term average of roughly 70 to one — silver is no longer historically cheap relative to gold; a structural revaluation has taken hold.

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Where Prices Go From Here

J.P. Morgan Research expects silver to average $81 per ounce in 2026 — more than double the 2025 average, which itself saw a 130 percent gain. The bank’s baseline scenario for June suggests a trading range between $72 and $88, with the base case at $80 to $85. A diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran situation and a weaker dollar could trigger a rapid recovery toward $90. Conversely, if industrial demand cools and the Fed turns even more hawkish, a retreat to the $70 handle is realistic.

For now, silver’s physical scarcity continues to put a floor under prices. The record delivery volumes on COMEX, the unrelenting deficit, and the classification of silver as a critical mineral in major economies all argue for a sustained bid. But until the central bank pivots or geopolitics resolves, that bid will remain capped by the highest real yields in years and a dollar strengthened by global uncertainty.

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