Silver's Six-Year Supply Gap Collides with a Dollar Squeeze as Iran Détente Offers Only Mild Relief
Published on 06/23/2026 at 05:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The silver market is wrestling with a rare contradiction. Its physical fundamentals have rarely looked more supportive — the Silver Institute projects a sixth consecutive year of global supply deficit, this time to the tune of 46.3 million fine ounces — yet the price has plunged by roughly half from the January 2026 record of $121 an ounce to hover near $66. The gold-silver ratio, at 64:1, sits below the long-term average of 70:1, suggesting the white metal is not particularly cheap by historical standards against gold. An acute physical liquidity crunch that surfaced last October, when unencumbered stockpiles in LBMA vaults fell to just 17%, underscored how tight the market had become. Solar manufacturers, which account for about 16% of global silver demand, have trimmed consumption by nearly a fifth, but mine supply is contracting even faster, keeping the deficit entrenched.
Monetary headwinds have overwhelmed that scarcity narrative. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at its June 17 meeting, but the tone from chair Kevin Warsh in his first press conference was unexpectedly hawkish. Nine of the 19 FOMC members now anticipate a rate increase before year-end, and markets assign a 70% probability to a September move. Higher rates dent the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver and simultaneously lift the US dollar, which climbed to a one-year high. In the week following the Fed decision, silver shed roughly $6 an ounce, a decline of about 4.5% that briefly pushed the spot price below $65.
Geopolitical developments added a twist. Reports of a potential peace plan between the US and Iran injected a modicum of calm, and silver rallied 2% on Monday to $66.43. The same US-Iran tensions had previously lent support to safe-haven buying, but the détente now competes with dollar strength that has so far neutralised that tailwind. The metal's rebound this week looks tentative against the backdrop of a resurgent greenback and rising rate expectations.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?
Analysts are sharply divided on where silver heads next. Commerzbank projects a year-end price of $90 an ounce, while TD Securities takes the bearish view with an average forecast of just $44 for 2026. The wide dispersion reflects the duel between a structurally shrinking supply pipeline — mine output is declining faster than the drop in industrial demand — and a monetary environment that continues to tighten.
All eyes are now on the US PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due this week. The headline inflation rate held at 4.2% in May, the highest in over three years, while the core PCE measure rose to 3.3%. If the data comes in hot, the dollar could strengthen further, adding to silver's woes. A softer reading, however, would allow the market to refocus on the physical deficit that has been building for half a decade. For now, silver remains stuck between its own tight supply and a Federal Reserve that shows no sign of loosening its grip.
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