SK Hynix Faces a Defining Moment as Earnings, Denials, and a Historic Selloff Converge
Published on 07/22/2026 at 15:03 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell a brutal story. SK Hynix shares have shed 38.73% from their June record of 2,987,000 won, with a 37.31% collapse over the past 30 days alone. Yet the stock still sits 181.67% higher year-to-date — a reminder that even a ferocious correction leaves room for a staggering annual gain. The tension between those two realities will come to a head on July 29, when the memory-chip giant delivers its second-quarter earnings.
At 1,830,000 won, the stock now trades roughly 17% below its 50-day moving average of 2,199,093 won. The 30-day annualized volatility stands at 115.42%, a figure that signals extreme swings are baked into the near-term outlook regardless of what the actual numbers show. The relative strength index sits at 41.0 — neutral territory that suggests investors are rattled but not yet in full capitulation mode.
The Earnings Reckoning
Analysts expect SK Hynix to report operating profit of around 60.4 trillion won for the second quarter, a 556% surge from a year earlier but roughly 8% below the market consensus of 65 trillion won. The discrepancy is critical: the lower estimate came from an investment bank that downgraded its profit forecast, triggering a fresh wave of selling that compounded the damage from a U.S. listing on July 10.
The core debate centers on HBM4, the next-generation high-bandwidth memory chips that investors had expected to ramp meaningfully in the second quarter. So far, there is no evidence that the anticipated volume boost materialized. Adding to the concern, SK Hynix’s heavy reliance on long-term supply contracts means it captures less of the recent price increases in conventional DRAM chips than rivals who trade more on the spot market.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?
The official earnings report will provide concrete data on real selling prices, HBM4 shipment volumes, and management’s outlook for the second half. That makes it the first authoritative data point capable of either validating or refuting the bearish thesis that has driven the selloff.
No Deal in Ohio
Amid the earnings anxiety, SK Hynix moved to shut down a distracting rumor. On July 21 and 22, the company filed mandatory disclosures with the KOSPI exchange denying reports that it plans to acquire Intel’s chip fabrication plant in Ohio or the associated land. The statement acknowledged that the company routinely evaluates investment and acquisition opportunities but stressed that no decision has been made on this specific deal.
The speculation had roots in SK Hynix’s 2022 acquisition of Intel’s NAND and SSD business for $9 billion. But the company’s current priorities lie elsewhere. The July 10 Nasdaq listing raised approximately $26.5 billion, proceeds that management says will fund internal expansion of its AI chip operations — not purchases of foreign factories.
A Market That Can’t Keep Up
The fundamental backdrop remains unusually tight. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won has described the current market environment as "abnormal," driven by a severe supply-demand imbalance. Analysts at Meritz Securities estimate that DRAM manufacturers can currently meet only 75% to 80% of market demand, a figure they project could fall to 60% by 2027. SK Hynix’s own management has warned of a prolonged supply crunch extending into next year.
That scarcity has not been lost on competitors. Micron Technology recently posted quarterly revenue of $41.46 billion, up 346% year-over-year, and guided for roughly $50 billion in the current quarter. Its stock surged 13% in a single session on the news — a signal that pricing power in memory chips remains intact and could support HBM pricing ahead of SK Hynix’s own report.
The Bear Case: When Volume Meets Price Risk
The danger lies in the classic memory-chip cycle. As manufacturers ramp HBM production with new capacity and improving yields, the current shortage could ease even if demand stays strong. That creates a margin risk: a company can sell many more chips yet earn less if average selling prices decline. Historically, price trends have mattered more than raw volume.
SK Hynix’s contract-heavy sales structure compounds the vulnerability. HBM chips are sold predominantly through long-term agreements rather than at spot prices, limiting the company’s ability to capture short-term price spikes. Meanwhile, a U.S. antitrust case looms in the background, naming SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron as defendants in an alleged DRAM supply-restriction scheme. The claims remain unproven, and the companies have not yet formally responded in court.
The Technology Hedge
On the product front, SK Hynix is not standing still. The company recently unveiled IMTE, a new memory architecture designed to boost AI inference efficiency by 35.7% compared with conventional systems. The technology places CXL hybrid memory between traditional high-performance memory (HBM/DDR) and SSDs. Separately, the company is in discussions about sample deliveries of its second-generation CMM-DDR5 modules, built on the CXL 3.2 standard.
SK Hynix at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Analysts view these moves as essential for maintaining leadership in AI memory solutions, particularly as conventional HBM and DDR capacities approach their physical limits. The question is whether the technology pipeline can reassure investors before the earnings report answers the more immediate question about HBM4 volumes.
What July 29 Will Decide
The earnings date falls on a crowded reporting day with 402 companies releasing results. For SK Hynix, it will provide the first hard evidence to settle the debate between two competing narratives.
If the report confirms sold-out capacity and a planned HBM4 ramp in the second half, the stock could stabilize and work its way back toward the 50-day moving average of 2,199,093 won. If it validates the analyst downgrade — with sluggish HBM4 volumes and margin pressure from the pricing structure — a further decline toward the 100-day moving average of 1,634,591 won becomes a real possibility.
The market has already delivered its preliminary verdict. The official numbers will determine whether that verdict was premature or prescient.
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