SK Hynix’s $500 Billion Nvidia Pledge Can’t Stop a 41% Slide From Peak
Published on 07/25/2026 at 13:33 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers coming out of Seoul on Friday were enough to make any semiconductor investor wince. SK Hynix shares tumbled 8.34 percent to close at 1,759,000 won, deepening a rout that has now erased more than 41 percent of the stock’s value since it hit a 52-week high of 2,987,000 won just weeks ago in June. The sell-off came on the very same day the company announced a landmark cooperation deal with the United States — including a long-term memory supply agreement with Nvidia worth over $500 billion.
That apparent contradiction captures the strange mood gripping South Korea’s chip sector. The SK Group, parent of SK Hynix, committed a staggering $750 billion to a broader $950 billion Korea-US technology cooperation package unveiled at a San Francisco summit. President Lee Jae Myung used the occasion to declare the “San Francisco AI Declaration,” positioning South Korea as a central hub in the global AI supply chain. Samsung Electronics also signed a memorandum of understanding with Broadcom worth up to $200 billion covering memory, foundry capacity, and advanced packaging.
Yet investors hit the sell button anyway. The rout was not confined to SK Hynix — Samsung Electronics lost roughly 7.6 percent on the same trading day, suggesting a sector-wide correction rather than company-specific trouble. Foreign investors had already been reducing their positions in both stocks during July, well before the official announcement, according to multiple reports. Adding to the pressure, a new South Korean regulation taking effect July 31 raises the minimum deposit for leveraged single-stock products on Samsung and SK Hynix from 10 million won to 30 million won, a move that likely squeezed speculative positioning.
The broader context, however, is a global reassessment of the AI trade. The sell-off was triggered in part by quarterly reports from major US technology companies that raised fresh doubts about when the massive investments in AI infrastructure will actually pay off. Investors have been taking profits along the entire semiconductor supply chain, and SK Hynix — as Nvidia’s primary supplier of high-bandwidth memory chips — sits directly in the crosshairs.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?
Technical damage, but not a broken story
The chart tells a sobering story. SK Hynix now trades nearly 20 percent below its 50-day moving average, a clear break of the short-term uptrend. The relative strength index sits at 40.1, approaching oversold territory but not yet flashing a definitive reversal signal. Over the past 30 days alone, the stock has shed roughly a third of its value.
For perspective, the shares are still up 170.74 percent year-to-date. That context matters, even if it offers cold comfort to anyone who bought near the June peak. The company’s fundamental position in the HBM market remains formidable: it controls an estimated 56 to 58 percent of the segment heading into early 2026, and together with Samsung, the two Korean giants command over 80 percent of global HBM supply.
SK Hynix has been mass-producing HBM4 memory since February and has secured roughly two-thirds of the orders for Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin platform. HBM revenues have tripled over the past year, with gross margins in that segment running at approximately 80 percent. The deal announced Friday also includes construction of data centers with a combined capacity of roughly five gigawatts and two million graphics processing units. SK Telecom plans to build a two-gigawatt data center with Nvidia based on the Vera Rubin platform and SK Hynix’s HBM4 chips, targeting a 2027 launch.
Wall Street sees opportunity, but earnings will decide
Several US banks are treating the pullback as a buying opportunity. Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore called the sell-off an attractive entry point, arguing that memory chip shortages could actually intensify through 2027 and 2028. Evercore’s Amit Daryanani sees the supply-demand imbalance as a structural theme that may worsen in coming quarters. Both firms point to expected price increases of at least 25 percent for data center memory in the third quarter.
SK Hynix at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
SK Hynix’s own chairman has suggested the chip shortage could persist beyond 2030. That bullish long-term view will face its first serious test on July 29, when the company reports second-quarter earnings — one day before Samsung Electronics and two days before Kioxia. Analysts expect record revenue and record profit, with consensus estimates pointing to year-over-year revenue growth of more than 250 percent, driven by sharp DRAM price increases.
The headline numbers alone may not be enough this time. Investors will scrutinize management’s outlook on HBM4 production yields and demand stability from key customers including Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. Confirmed long-term contracts or direct investments from these tech giants into SK Hynix’s production lines could stabilize the stock. Any signal of cooling HBM growth, however, could extend the correction into the third quarter.
The gap between the company’s operational momentum — HBM revenues tripling, margins near 80 percent, a $500 billion Nvidia deal — and its stock price, down 41 percent from the peak, is the central tension that July 29’s earnings report will either resolve or deepen.
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SK Hynix Stock: New Analysis - 25 July
Fresh SK Hynix information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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