SK Hynix's AI Feast Spreads Beyond HBM as a Mystery Buyer and NAND Boom Redraw the Profit Map

The memory industry's transformation into an AI infrastructure play is accelerating faster than most analysts expected. SK Hynix, long seen as a cyclical commodity manufacturer, now finds itself courted by two powerful demand drivers at once. In the first quarter, a previously undisclosed technology giant—widely believed to be a US hyperscaler such as Microsoft or Google—contributed 6.5365 trillion won, or 12.4 percent of total revenue. That bolsters an already formidable customer base anchored by Nvidia, which remains the single largest client with purchases of 7.7806 trillion won, representing 14.8 percent of sales and up 62.6 percent year-over-year.

Yet the narrative is no longer limited to high-bandwidth memory. Mirae Asset Securities this week lifted its price target on SK Hynix to 3.2 million won from 2.7 million, placing it at the top of major broker estimates. The bank cited not HBM but NAND flash and enterprise SSDs as the fresh catalyst. It now forecasts NAND operating profit of roughly 61.1 trillion won, well above its earlier projection, and expects average selling prices to jump 45 percent in the current quarter. Data centers hungry for fast, high-capacity storage are driving a structural shortage that analysts believe could persist through 2027.

The shifting earnings mix has produced numbers rarely seen in a cyclical industry. For the first quarter, SK Hynix reported revenue of 52.6 trillion won—a 198 percent leap from the prior year—and an operating margin of 71.5 percent. The group is plowing that cash back into capacity: research and development spending crossed 2 trillion won for the first time, while capital expenditure on facilities and infrastructure reached 7.35 trillion won, much of it destined for new Korean fabs dedicated to AI memory.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?

Supply tightness is now the defining feature of the landscape. SK Hynix is effectively sold out across HBM, DRAM, and NAND through the end of 2026, giving it pricing power and the ability to negotiate long-term supply agreements. Korea's DRAM export price index in April was 232.8 percent above the year-earlier level in won terms, reinforcing the reality behind the bullish forecasts. Nomura has explicitly reclassified the company from a cyclical commodity player to a specialized AI infrastructure provider—a view that gains weight as earnings estimates continue to climb.

The forward-looking pipeline is equally ambitious. SK Hynix plans to deliver first samples of HBM4E in the second half of 2026, with mass production slated for 2027. The 2026 HBM capacity is already fully allocated, and management sees a mild shortage persisting into the following year. For major customers, securing supply has become strategic enough that some are reportedly weighing direct investments in production lines—a move that would provide financial tailwinds but also highlight how strained the market has become.

The stock's rally has been breathtaking but volatile. On Friday, shares closed at 1,819,000 won, yielding a monthly gain of 64.18 percent and a year-to-date advance of 173.56 percent. Monday brought a 7.16 percent pullback to 1,829,000 won, trimming the YTD return to 170.16 percent, yet the price remains well above key moving averages. Technical indicators flash caution: the RSI sits at 68.9, and annualized monthly volatility tops 75 percent. The rally has not been cheap, but the underlying fundamentals—record margins, a diversifying customer base, and an increasingly tight supply picture—suggest the re-rating may still have room to run.

The broader SK Group structure also benefits. Heungkuk Securities raised its target for holding company SK Square from 350,000 won to 1.3 million won, explicitly pointing to the Hynix cycle as the primary driver. SK Square is also planning an interim dividend of 1,550 won per share. As SK Hynix transitions from a pure memory maker into the backbone of AI computing infrastructure, both its own valuation and that of its parent are being rewritten—not just by HBM, but by the NAND windfall that many had overlooked.

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