SoftBank Caught in the Crossfire as BIS Sounds Alarm on AI Spending Spree
Veröffentlicht: 30.06.2026 um 16:26 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Bank for International Settlements has lobbed a warning shot across the bow of the tech world, and SoftBank is taking the heaviest splash. The central bankers’ bank released its 2026 annual report on Tuesday, drawing unsettling parallels between today's artificial intelligence investment frenzy and the railway mania of the 19th century, not to mention the dot-com bust. Its core thesis: the five largest hyperscalers will pour more than $1 trillion into AI infrastructure between 2025 and 2026, far outstripping their current profits. That creates what the BIS calls "circular financing" – companies borrowing to invest in AI startups that then buy chips and data-center capacity from the same lenders, a loop that risks collapse when revenue growth fails to materialize.
SoftBank’s shares have already priced in the anxiety. The stock tumbled 5.42 percent on the day to €32.10, and the 30-day decline now stands at nearly 35 percent. The relative strength index at 41 signals the stock is brushing against oversold territory, though not yet deep in it. Adding to the pressure, OpenAI’s initial public offering may slip to 2027, according to reports. Chief executive Sam Altman is said to be pushing for a $1 trillion valuation, well above the current private-market estimate of roughly $852 billion – meaning the liquidity events SoftBank’s Vision Fund has been banking on are moving further into the distance.
SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son is having none of the bearish narrative. He has branded talk of an AI bubble a "blasphemy against AI" and an "insult" to the technology’s potential, comparing the current era to the early days of the internet. Son is backing that rhetoric with capital. The group built a $2 billion stake in Intel in August 2025, and that position is already in the black. The centerpiece remains the Stargate project, for which SoftBank committed $19 billion earlier in 2025 to build out AI infrastructure. Son’s long-range ambition is staggering: he wants to lift SoftBank’s net asset value to a quadrillion yen – roughly $6.4 trillion – within 16 years.
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The CEO also took aim at Elon Musk’s vision of orbiting data centers, calling it a "lost bet." Son argues that semiconductors, not energy, are the real cost driver in AI, and that the expense of rocket launches and satellite maintenance would erase any theoretical savings. In contrast, SoftBank is reportedly exploring a stake in Japanese utility TEPCO to secure power for domestic data centers, reflecting projections that global data-center energy demand will more than double from 415 terawatt-hours in 2024 to 945 terawatt-hours by 2030.
Inside the sprawling SoftBank empire, one asset towers above all others: Arm Holdings. The chip designer now makes up 47.8 percent of the group’s total net asset value, which stands at roughly 40 trillion yen. That concentration makes SoftBank’s financial health hostage to Arm’s stock performance. On the product front, Arm unveiled a new AGI processor on Tuesday aimed at agentic AI data centers, with Oracle Cloud Infrastructure already signed as a customer. Arm CEO Rene Haas collected compensation of around 6.1 billion yen for the fiscal year through March 2026, the highest ever recorded for a Japanese manager, according to Tokyo Shoko Research.
Yet the broader semiconductor sector remains under a cloud. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is trading roughly 10 percent below its June peak, and SoftBank’s own shares have been punished as investors question whether the spending can deliver returns. Despite the headwinds, SoftBank is pressing ahead with expansion. It plans to acquire ABB’s robotics business in 2026, adding physical AI to its portfolio while others pull back.
The BIS report may or may not mark a permanent revaluation of the AI sector. The real test will come when the hyperscalers report their next quarterly earnings and must show – for the first time in concrete numbers – what that trillion-dollar outlay is actually yielding. Until then, SoftBank remains stuck between a regulator’s red flag and a founder’s unshakeable conviction.
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