SpaceX Enters a Pivotal Stretch as Earnings, Lockup Wave and Twin Launch Failures Collide
Published on 07/21/2026 at 05:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX’s first earnings release as a listed company on 4 August could not come at a more charged moment. The spacefaring giant will not only unveil its quarterly results but also trigger the expiration of a lockup on hundreds of millions of insider shares — all while the stock hovers just above its 52-week low and the company grapples with two high-profile launch aborts within a single week.
The shares have been under severe pressure since their June debut. After pricing at $135 ahead of the 12 June IPO, the stock rocketed to an all-time high of $225.64 just days later, but a series of operational and technical setbacks has since erased nearly all those gains. In the latest trading session, SpaceX closed at €104.96, a mere 0.08% above the 52-week floor of €104.88 set on 20 July. The secondary article, reporting from a slightly earlier date, put the stock at €108.98, 3.51% above its then-fresh low of €105.28. The gap underscores how quickly sentiment has soured: the stock has lost over 30% in the past 30 days alone, with annualized volatility topping 91%.
A Week of Aborted Missions
The technical troubles have been stark. On 16 July, a Starship test flight was aborted after four of the vehicle’s 33 Raptor engines failed to ignite during the countdown. SpaceX has since said that at least two of the engines needed to be removed and replaced, and a new attempt for the vehicle’s 13th test flight is now slated for 23 July. That mission will aim to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites and test heat-shield upgrades.
Days later, on Monday of this week, a Falcon 9 rocket destined to carry two dozen Starlink V2-Mini satellites was forced to abort from Vandenberg Space Force Base after all nine Merlin engines briefly ignited and then immediately shut down. SpaceX confirmed the vehicle and payload are safe but has not yet said whether the first-stage booster will need to be swapped. It was an unusual failure for the workhorse Falcon 9 — the last such abort after engine ignition occurred in June 2024 during a Starlink mission. The 85th Falcon 9 launch of the year and the 667th overall was put on hold.
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While the two aborts are technically unrelated, their proximity has drawn scrutiny to SpaceX’s launch cadence, a cornerstone of its revenue model. Starlink, the profitable satellite-internet arm that now serves 10.3 million subscribers, recorded revenue growth of roughly 50% year-on-year in the first quarter, but any disruption to the pace of deployments could slow that momentum.
Lockup Overhang Magnifies Uncertainty
The earnings release on 4 August will be accompanied by a major test for the stock. Two trading days after the results, a lockup on approximately 911.5 million insider shares — roughly 20% of all outstanding shares — will expire. An additional 10% tranche remains tied to a price hurdle: those shares will only be unlocked if the stock trades above $175.50. With the current price well below that level, that chunk stays blocked. Elon Musk’s own stake is locked until June 2027. Short sellers, who hold around 29% of the freely tradable float, are reportedly sitting on billions of dollars in paper gains, keeping the stock under persistent selling pressure.
Against this backdrop, analyst views have split dramatically. Targets range from $62 to $800. Morgan Stanley sees $300, Raymond James $800, while Goldman Sachs is more conservative at $205. UBS and Wells Fargo both rate the stock a buy, with price objectives of $210 and $230, respectively. Gavin Baker of Atreides Management told CNBC that the post-IPO slide is typical and not cause for alarm.
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Looking Past the Noise
SpaceX does have longer-term catalysts that could offer support. The company is reportedly in talks for a multi-billion-dollar cloud-computing contract with the Pentagon and already leases computing capacity to Anthropic and Google. It is also part of a historic $182 billion wave of AI-linked bond issuance, raising capital for infrastructure spending. The Starship program, which has consumed more than $15 billion in investment, is key to plans for orbital data centers that are not expected before 2028.
Whether those narratives can offset the immediate headwinds of a lockup flood and operational hiccups will become clearer after the 4 August numbers. For now, SpaceX’s stock is caught between the highest of bull cases and the most mechanical of supply pressures.
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