SpaceX Faces a Crucible Week as Starship Flight 13, Insider Lock-Up, and First Earnings Collide
Published on 07/24/2026 at 20:10 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares have slipped to fresh lows, with the stock trading at €99.15 on Friday — a 4.63% decline — as the company prepares for its third attempt at Starship Flight 13 in as many days. The 90-minute launch window opens at 17:45 local time in Texas, following weather-related delays and a prior abort triggered by the flight software on July 16, when four Raptor engines failed to meet startup parameters. SpaceX has since replaced at least two engines on the Super Heavy booster.
The technical stakes are higher than on previous test flights. The upper stage is carrying 20 next-generation Starlink satellites — six of them equipped with cameras to inspect the Ship 40 vehicle in orbit, a maneuver reminiscent of the Space Shuttle’s rendezvous technique. This will also be the first flight to deploy the new “V3” Starlink satellites, marking a significant step in the constellation’s evolution.
But the pressure on the stock extends well beyond the launchpad. The current price sits just 1.65% above the 52-week low of €97.54, which was set only yesterday. The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to 33, signaling oversold conditions. Over the past 30 days, the shares have corrected by 27.28%.
A $94.1 Billion Paper Fortune
Alphabet, the Google parent company, disclosed in its quarterly filing that its stake in SpaceX is now worth $94.1 billion. That position began modestly in January 2015, when Alphabet and Fidelity invested between $500 million and $900 million at a company valuation of just $12 billion. Subsequent funding rounds and the merger with Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI in early 2026 diluted Alphabet’s stake to roughly 4.9%, but the June 2026 IPO sent the value of the remaining shares soaring.
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Combined with gains from its Anthropic investment, Alphabet reported $99.0 billion in realized and unrealized income from equity stakes in the second quarter. Yet almost none of that is accessible cash. Lock-up agreements following the IPO restrict $80 billion of the SpaceX stake from short-term sales, while another $14.1 billion is classified as long-term restricted and cannot be sold until the third quarter of 2027. The structure is deliberate: a sudden flood of shares from anchor investors like Alphabet could destabilize an already fragile stock.
Lock-Up Clock Ticking
That fragility is about to be tested directly. SpaceX will report its second-quarter 2026 earnings after the market close on August 4 — the company’s first quarterly report as a publicly traded entity. That announcement will trigger the first tranche of a staggered lock-up release for insiders. Starting August 6, the second full trading day after the release, insiders will be permitted to sell up to 20% of their locked shares, representing as many as 911.5 million shares entering the market.
Short sellers have already positioned for this event. Bearish bets now account for roughly one-third of the free float. Because so few shares are available for trading before the lock-up release, these short positions have drawn outsized attention. The convergence of the Starship test, the earnings release, and the impending lock-up expiry has created a uniquely tense environment for the stock.
What the Flight Means for the Stock
Analysts view today’s launch attempt as a near-term sentiment driver ahead of the earnings report. A clean test flight could help stabilize the share price. A second failure, however, could push the stock back into the support zone between $116 and $121, with some traders watching the $100 level closely.
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The technical challenges are not new. During Flight 12 in May, a faulty engine ignition sequence on Ship 39 caused the booster to rotate roughly 90 degrees during a directional change. SpaceX has implemented hardware modifications for this flight to improve relight reliability, along with updated alarm and abort systems designed to prevent the premature shutdown that plagued the previous mission.
For SpaceX, the next few days carry double the weight: technical validation in orbit and financial validation in the market. The outcome of the Starship test, the contents of the first earnings report, and the initial wave of insider selling will together set the tone for the stock in its early history as a public company.
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