SpaceX Faces a Pivotal Week as Starship Test, Lock-Up Expiry, and First Earnings Converge
Published on 07/24/2026 at 15:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX enters one of its most consequential stretches since going public, with a trio of high-stakes events set to test investor confidence over the coming days. The company is preparing for its 13th Starship test flight, approaching the expiration of its first lock-up period, and bracing for its inaugural quarterly earnings report — all while short sellers have built a record $25 billion bet against the stock.
The shares, which closed at €103.96 in European trading on Thursday, have lost nearly half their value since hitting a post-IPO peak of $225.64 on June 23. At current levels, the stock trades roughly 18% below its $135 IPO price and about 51% below that June high. The decline has erased more than $1 trillion in market capitalization from the company's peak valuation of $2.639 trillion, which now stands at approximately $1.48 trillion.
Starship Flight 13 Faces Weather Delays
The immediate catalyst for volatility is the latest attempt to launch Starship from SpaceX's Starbase facility in Boca Chica, Texas. The 90-minute launch window opens at 22:45 CEST on Friday evening, after Tropical Storm Bertha forced a postponement from Thursday by disrupting the ground-based tracking needed for the mission.
Engineers are targeting a specific objective: capturing clear ground footage of the heat shield during the ascent phase under high dynamic pressure. The flight will also carry 20 simulated Starlink V3 satellites, six of which are equipped with cameras for deployment testing. The previous attempt on July 16 was aborted automatically after four Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster failed to meet ignition parameters, requiring the replacement of two engines.
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A successful mission would help dispel doubts about the V3 satellite architecture and the vehicle's reliability. Another failure, however, would test the stock's technical support near its recent 52-week low of €97.54, reached on Thursday.
Short Sellers Tighten Their Grip
The bearish positioning against SpaceX has reached extraordinary levels. Short interest as a percentage of free float has surged from roughly 5-7% a month ago to approximately 32%, representing about 206 million shares worth around $25 billion. In total, some 360 million shares — 56% of the free float — are estimated to be out on loan, generating paper profits of roughly $15.5 billion for short sellers so far.
The annualized 30-day volatility of 67.15% underscores how sharply the stock reacts to launch outcomes and regulatory milestones. The relative strength index, at 34.9 to 35.3 depending on the pricing reference, signals the stock is approaching oversold territory, which can fuel short-term bounces like Thursday's 2.89% gain.
Elon Musk has publicly warned short sellers, stating that the survival probability of companies with significant short positions against SpaceX is "very low." The warning has done little to deter the bearish crowd, however, as the stock continues to slide.
Lock-Up Looms as First Earnings Approach
The most significant test for the stock may still be ahead. On August 4, SpaceX will release its first comprehensive quarterly report since the June 12 IPO. Investors are looking for updates on Starlink subscriber growth, Starship's launch cadence, and the timeline for expiring lock-up restrictions.
Just two days later, on August 6, the first lock-up period expires, freeing up to 911.5 million existing shares for trading. That would increase the free float from its current 4.9% to roughly 12% of the 13.2 billion total shares outstanding. Additional tranches are scheduled for release in September, November, and December.
A further 10% of shares are subject to a performance-based condition: they will only become tradable if the stock closes above $175 on five of the ten trading days surrounding the earnings release. At current levels, that threshold appears out of reach.
Alphabet's mandatory disclosure on Thursday revealed the scale of institutional backing since the IPO. The Google parent holds a stake worth approximately $94.1 billion, representing about 6% of the company, stemming from an initial $900 million investment in 2015. However, $80 billion of that position is subject to short-term lock-up restrictions, with another $14.1 billion locked until the third quarter of 2027.
Musk himself owns roughly 40% of the shares and controls over 80% of the voting rights, with his own holdings subject to a separate one-year lock-up.
Financial Reality Behind the Valuation
Despite the $1.48 trillion market cap, SpaceX's financials remain under pressure. The company reported a net loss of $4.937 billion in fiscal 2025 on revenue of approximately $18.674 billion, driven largely by Starship development costs and the rapid expansion of the Starlink network.
The valuation multiple has drawn criticism from skeptics, who note the stock trades at roughly 40 times estimated 2026 revenue — well above industry norms for a company still posting billions in losses. Bondholders have also grown nervous: SpaceX's 6.65% notes due 2056 have fallen from 97 cents to 87.6 cents on the dollar.
Tesla Merger Speculation Adds Another Layer
The recent earnings call at Tesla has reignited speculation about a potential merger between the two Musk-controlled companies. When asked directly about a combination, Musk responded that "the merger of companies cannot be discussed on an earnings conference" and would require "the appropriate process."
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Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management has raised his probability estimate for a merger to 90%, up from 80% previously. The speculation is fueled by Tesla's second-quarter results, which showed a GAAP net profit of $1.114 billion — a figure that included an unrealized valuation gain of $1.005 million on Tesla's SpaceX stake, acquired this year for roughly $2.002 billion. Without that contribution, operating profit would have been significantly lower.
RBC highlighted the growing importance of the SpaceX relationship to Tesla's valuation in its analysis, noting that the cross-ownership creates a financial entanglement that could pave the way for a formal combination.
The xAI Integration
SpaceX completed its merger with Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI in February 2026, creating a new division called SpaceXAI focused on orbital computing infrastructure and AI systems for the Starlink network. The deal valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion at the time of announcement.
The strategic pivot positions SpaceX as a space-based technology conglomerate, though it has come with higher capital consumption. The AI integration is viewed as a long-term valuation driver, but near-term costs have added to the financial strain.
What to Watch
The next 48 hours will be critical. A successful Starship launch could provide a short-term catalyst, while any further delays would add to the bearish narrative. The August 4 earnings release will offer the first comprehensive look at the company's financial trajectory since going public, and the August 6 lock-up expiry will test whether the current shareholder base is willing to hold or eager to exit.
With short interest at record levels and the stock trading near its lows, the convergence of these events sets up a potential inflection point — one way or the other.
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