SpaceX Faces a Triple Threat in August as Starship Milestone Fails to Lift the Gloom
Published on 07/26/2026 at 09:50 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX pulled off a technical first with its Starship test flight on Friday, successfully placing 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites into orbit and executing a controlled splashdown of the upper stage in the Indian Ocean. For shareholders, however, the achievement barely registered. The stock closed at €101.18, down 2.6% on the day, extending a slide that has erased more than 25% of its value over the past month. From the June record high, the shares have tumbled nearly 48%.
The muted reaction underscores a deeper erosion of investor confidence since the company’s Nasdaq debut. This was the first Starship test since the IPO, giving shareholders a live look at the program’s execution risk. Yet the market’s attention has already shifted to a far more consequential stretch: the first quarterly earnings report as a public company, due after the close on August 4, followed just two days later by the expiration of the initial lock-up period.
A Booster Blunder and a Cold Market
The test flight was not flawless. Booster 20 failed to reignite all its engines during the landing maneuver, resulting in a hard splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico. SpaceX confirmed via X that all 20 Starlink satellites had established contact, but the landing mishap gives engineers fresh diagnostic work ahead of the next flight.
Analysts see the market’s indifference as rooted in broader concerns rather than the test itself. The Starship program continues to consume enormous capital, and one industry financier pointed to debt-funded AI investments as an additional drag on the stock. Without reliable earnings, the shares lack a stabilizing anchor. Satellite analyst Tim Farrar told CNBC that the company still struggles with engine reignition, noting that full, rapid reusability remains distant.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The sell-off has been relentless. Since the third trading day, SpaceX has shed roughly €1 trillion in market value. In four of the past five weeks, the stock has moved lower. The 14-day RSI now sits at 33.9, a technically oversold reading, while the annualized 30-day volatility has climbed to 67.12%, signaling deep nervousness.
HSBC Pours Cold Water on the Rally
Adding to the pressure, HSBC initiated coverage with a “Hold” rating and a price target of $115 — barely above the current level. The bank employed a sum-of-the-parts valuation with a double “innovation premium” to reflect Elon Musk’s track record of commercializing disruptive technologies, using Tesla’s first decade as a public company as a template. Even so, HSBC concluded that the market has already priced in the good news: Starlink’s expansion, rising launch activity, and the company’s AI ambitions.
In its most optimistic “Blue Sky” scenario, HSBC sees fair value at $293 per share — but that assumes Starship becomes commercially viable by 2027 and launch capacity continues to grow. The bank warned that unproven bets, including orbital data centers, space-based AI infrastructure, and the Terafab semiconductor project, remain highly speculative. Governance concerns also feature: Musk retains effective control through his voting rights, and HSBC flagged that future lock-up expirations could significantly increase the free float after upcoming earnings reports.
Alphabet’s $94 Billion Stake Adds Another Layer
Separately, Alphabet disclosed for the first time that its SpaceX stake is worth roughly $94 billion as of June 30. The position dates back to January 2015, when Google and Fidelity together invested $1 billion for nearly 10% of the company. But the paper gain remains just that: paper. All shares are subject to selling restrictions, including $14.1 billion locked up until the third quarter of 2027. The remainder falls under standard post-IPO restrictions that will begin to phase out after the first quarterly report.
Because the valuation is dated to June 30, it no longer reflects current market conditions. With the stock having fallen further since then, Alphabet’s stake is likely worth less than the balance sheet shows.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Lock-Up Clock Is Ticking
The most immediate catalyst arrives on August 6, when the first tranche of the lock-up period expires. Roughly 911.5 million shares, worth about $116 billion, will become eligible for sale — one-fifth of all shares locked at the IPO. That looming supply overhang has already reshaped market positioning. Short interest has surged to over 30% of available shares, up from single digits just a month ago. Many traders are betting on further declines before the pivotal week even begins.
The convergence of first-quarter earnings, a massive lock-up expiration, and record short interest creates a rare concentration of potential catalysts within two trading days. Friday’s successful rocket test, while a technical milestone, looks unlikely to serve as a turning point for the beleaguered stock. The real test lies ahead, and the market is already bracing for impact.
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