SpaceX’s 911 Million Share Overhang Meets a New Short-Selling Weapon
Published on 07/28/2026 at 07:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers coming out of SpaceX’s stock are staggering by any measure. The company that briefly wore the trillion-dollar crown has watched its market capitalization erode by more than $1.2 trillion since its June debut, a sum roughly equal to the entire value of Tesla. On Monday, shares closed at €99.96 in German trading, down 1.26%, while the Nasdaq listing touched an intraday all-time low of $108.66 before settling at $113.50 — the lowest closing price since the IPO, according to Investopedia. That puts the stock more than 50% below its record high of $225.64 and well under the $135 IPO price.
A Lock-Up Tsunami and an Earnings Debut Collide
Two events are converging to create what could be the most punishing week in SpaceX’s brief public life. On August 4, the company will report its first quarterly results since listing. Analysts surveyed by The Motley Fool expect a loss of $0.28 per share on revenue of $6.87 billion. Just two days later, on August 6, the lock-up agreement expires for insiders and early investors, freeing up as many as 911.5 million shares for sale. HSBC calculates that the moveable float would more than double from 4.9% to 11.8% of total shares outstanding. BigGo Finance pegs the dollar value of that unlock at roughly $116 billion.
The timing could hardly be more precarious. The stock is already trading just 4.62% above its 52-week low of €95.55, hit on July 27. Over the past 30 days, shares have fallen 30.46%. The relative strength index sits at 33.3, signaling oversold conditions, while annualized 30-day volatility has surged to 64.40%.
CME’s New Futures Offer a Workaround for Short Sellers
Into this environment steps the CME Group. On Monday, the exchange launched cash-settled single-stock futures on 55 US names, including SpaceX, along with micro contracts on 22 of those stocks. Traded on the Globex platform from Sunday evening through Friday afternoon with just a one-hour daily maintenance break, the standard contract represents 100 shares and the micro contract 10 shares. The minimum margin for unsecured positions is 15% of notional value, translating to maximum leverage of roughly 6.7 times.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
For short sellers who have already squeezed nearly every available borrowable share, the futures provide a new channel. Mid-July data showed almost half of the free float was held by short sellers, and Ortex data cited by Reuters puts their mark-to-market profit since the IPO at $15.5 billion. With share lending increasingly scarce, the CME products allow bearish bets without needing to locate and borrow stock. CME managing director Tim McCourt said the contracts let market participants express views or hedge volatility without directly buying or selling the underlying shares.
Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys noted that retail brokers are calling the launch the biggest growth driver in their private-client business this year, with more than 35 broker partners ready to offer the products from day one. Retail investors have already poured over $500 million into leveraged and inverse ETFs tied to SpaceX.
Morgan Stanley Questions the AI Valuation
The selloff has been fueled in part by skepticism over SpaceX’s artificial intelligence division, which houses the Grok and Cursor projects. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argues that investors are effectively valuing that business at zero or even negative, given the heavy spending required. In the first quarter of 2026, the AI unit generated $818 million in revenue but posted an operating loss of $2.47 billion. Jonas sees Starlink as the true value driver but nonetheless maintains an overweight rating with a $300 price target. Raymond James is far more bullish, rating the stock a strong buy with an $800 target — a spread that underscores just how wide the disagreement among analysts has become.
Starship’s Success Fails to Lift the Stock
Even positive developments from the rocket program have done nothing to stem the selling. On July 24, Starship Flight 13 successfully deployed 20 of the new Starlink V3 satellites, reignited a Raptor engine in space, and completed a controlled water landing. The heat shield held up under higher acceleration stress testing. The only blemish: the Super Heavy booster failed to ignite all 13 engines during the landing burn. Morgan Stanley, which reaffirmed its overweight rating after the flight, noted that all 33 Raptor engines fired cleanly at launch, stage separation worked, and the satellite deployment was a success.
The market’s indifference to this technical milestone underscores how completely the lock-up overhang and AI valuation concerns are dominating sentiment.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Musk’s Casual Defiance and the Tesla Merger Talk
Elon Musk has responded to the rout with characteristic nonchalance, posting “(Former) Trillionaire” on X and reiterating his long-term focus on reaching Mars. Meanwhile, speculation about a potential merger with Tesla continues to swirl. During Tesla’s earnings call on July 22, Musk did not rule out a combination, citing growing overlap between the two companies. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management puts the probability of such a deal at 90%, while JPMorgan points to the already tight operational integration.
For now, though, the immediate pressure comes from the calendar. With a loss-making earnings report and a flood of newly tradable shares arriving within the same 48-hour window, SpaceX is facing its most consequential week since going public — and the CME’s new futures market is about to get its first real stress test.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 28 July
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