SpaceX's First Earnings Report Arrives Amid a Storm of Short Sellers, Lock-Up Fears and Deep Valuation Rifts
Published on 07/29/2026 at 15:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares are clinging to a fragile recovery after plumbing new depths, with the stock closing at €102.28 on Tuesday — up 2.28% from the session’s all-time low of €94.15. Yet the bounce masks a brutal 29% monthly decline, leaving the stock deep in oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index of 35.6 that has yet to flash a definitive reversal signal.
The next two weeks will test whether this is a genuine floor or just a pause before another leg down. On August 4, after the US market close, the company will publish its first quarterly report since its blockbuster IPO in June. Two days later, on August 6, a lock-up restriction expires on up to 911.5 million shares — roughly 20% of the equity that has been tied up since the listing. The options market is pricing in a swing of around 15% around the earnings date, with implied volatility hovering near 122.
The Numbers That Matter
Analysts expect second-quarter revenue of $6.9 billion, a sharp jump from the $4.69 billion reported in the first quarter, when net losses hit $4.28 billion and revenue growth had slowed to 15%. The per-share loss is forecast at $0.28. But the market’s focus will be on two operational linchpins: the profitability of Starlink’s satellite broadband business and the capital burn rate of the Starship development program.
Starlink generated $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating profit during the first quarter. By contrast, the artificial intelligence division centered on xAI brought in just $0.82 billion in revenue and posted an operating loss of $2.47 billion — all while carrying a 2025 investment budget of $12.73 billion. Critics argue that the stock, trading at roughly 82 times projected 2025 revenue, is impossible to justify as long as the AI segment remains deeply unprofitable.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Wall Street’s Wildest Divergence
Rarely have analysts disagreed so violently on a single stock. Raymond James maintains a Strong Buy rating with a price target of $800. At the other extreme, Morningstar assigns a fair value of just $63 and recommends selling. The consensus among 31 surveyed firms splits 23 buys, seven holds and one sell, with an average target of roughly $236.71. HSBC sits in the middle with a Hold and a $115 target, while Goldman Sachs is seen as bullish.
Future Fund investor Gary Black warns that with the stock trading at a price-to-earnings multiple above 175 for fiscal 2026, a drop below $100 is possible. The valuation debate centers on whether the AI business can ever justify the premium baked into the share price — or whether the stock is pricing in a transformation that remains years away.
Short Sellers Are Winning Big
The bearish camp has been richly rewarded. According to S3 Partners, short sellers have booked more than $7.3 billion in paper profits since the IPO, with open short interest exceeding $26 billion. SpaceX is among the most profitable short trades of the year. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has been buying into the weakness, snapping up 124,543 shares on July 28 for roughly $14.1 million across several of its funds, including the ARK Innovation ETF and the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF. That followed a purchase of 70,773 shares worth about $36.1 million on July 27.
Operational Progress Continues
Amid the market turbulence, SpaceX has kept its launch cadence intact. A Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to lift the NROL-95 mission for the National Reconnaissance Office and the U.S. Space Force from Cape Canaveral on Thursday. On July 24, Starship completed its thirteenth test flight, achieving a first-ever in-space engine relight — a milestone for the rapid reusability that underpins the company’s long-term economics.
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman has called SpaceX indispensable for a permanent lunar presence and endorsed plans for orbital AI data centers. Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson sees the company’s announced Texas-based AI data centers as a positive signal for Nvidia hardware demand, given the infrastructure components required from 2027 onward.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Lock-Up Overhang
The August 6 lock-up expiry will release a wave of insider shares that could hit the market if employees and early investors decide to cash out. The sheer size of the overhang — 911.5 million shares — has weighed on sentiment for weeks. The stock’s 8.4% recovery from its 52-week low, set on July 28, suggests some stabilization, but traders remain wary of another leg down once selling restrictions lift.
The convergence of the earnings report, the lock-up expiry and the relentless short-selling pressure creates an unusually dense cluster of catalysts. How the market weighs the operational narrative against the valuation concerns and the supply overhang will determine whether SpaceX can hold its ground — or whether the next two weeks deepen the rout.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 29 July
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