SpaceX’s Grok 4.5 Debut and $60 Billion Cursor Bet Fail to Stem Stock’s Post-Index Slide
Published on 07/09/2026 at 14:07 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The unveiling of Grok 4.5, SpaceXAI’s latest model, alongside a blockbuster $60 billion all-stock acquisition of the coding platform Cursor, should have been a catalyst. Instead, the shares closed Wednesday at $148.30, marking a second consecutive session below the $150 IPO price and extending a 7.6% two-day drop. The market is clearly unimpressed.
Grok 4.5 is positioned as a direct competitor to models from Anthropic and OpenAI, trained on tens of thousands of Nvidia GB300 chips in SpaceX’s Colossus supercomputer. Pricing comes in at $2 per million input tokens and $6 per million output tokens. Elon Musk labels it “Opus-class” while claiming superior speed and efficiency. The Cursor deal, struck in stock, integrates the AI tool directly into an existing developer ecosystem — a strategic move that had been telegraphed for weeks.
Yet the stock has now fallen 26.5% from its June 16 all-time high of $201.80. The much-hyped entry into the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, which forced passive index funds to buy roughly $4.3 billion of shares, fizzled almost immediately. Institutional investors used the mechanical buying as an exit, and the selling pressure has overwhelmed the index tailwind.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Financial disclosures paint a mixed picture. For fiscal 2025, SpaceX posted revenue of $18.67 billion but a net loss of $4.94 billion. Starlink contributed $11.3 billion of that revenue, with subscribers surging to 10.3 million in the first quarter of 2026 — up 105% year over year. However, average revenue per user has slipped from $86 to $66 per month, partly offset by a 59% reduction in terminal manufacturing costs since 2022. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, the company lost $4.28 billion on $4.7 billion in revenue, underscoring the capital intensity of its Starship and AI infrastructure builds.
Wall Street remains deeply divided. Morgan Stanley holds an “Overweight” rating with a $300 target, seeing SpaceX reaching $3.3 trillion in annual revenue by 2040 — but not before burning roughly $84 billion a year in external funding until 2035. Raymond James is the most bullish at $800, envisioning a $10 trillion market cap on the back of a $26 trillion AI market. UBS sits at $210, while New Street Research comes in at $165. On the bearish side, MoffettNathanson rates it “Neutral” with a $131 target, and CFRA has issued a “Sell” recommendation. The spread — from $131 to $800 — reflects a fundamental uncertainty over whether SpaceX is a capital-intensive aerospace builder or an AI platform play.
Adding to the near-term risk, a $25 billion bond placed in late June has seen its trading value slip, and a lockup expiry on August 11, 2026, will free up an estimated 20% of outstanding shares. If demand remains tepid, that overhang could compound the selling pressure. For now, technical breakthroughs and index membership are not enough to lift a stock weighed down by red ink and a wide valuation gulf.
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