SpaceX's IPO Rewrites Tesla's Risk Profile as Shares Languish in No-Man's Land
Published on 06/16/2026 at 16:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Tesla shareholders have a new variable to contend with, and it sits not on the road but in the heavens. The June 12 listing of SpaceX instantly handed the electric-vehicle maker a paper fortune: 19 million shares worth roughly $4.2 billion at the opening trade. That windfall, however, comes with a catch. Under fair-value accounting, every swing in SpaceX's stock price will now ripple through Tesla's quarterly earnings, adding fresh unpredictability to a balance sheet already known for its volatility.
The timing could not be more telling. Tesla's own shares have been drifting in a narrow band around €350, stuck at €351.85 — just shy of the 200-day moving average of €358.46. The stock dipped to €349.65 on Tuesday, shedding 1.3%, and sits 17% below its December peak of over €424. The relative strength index of 49.4 signals neither momentum nor panic; the market is in wait-and-see mode. The average analyst price target of €362.19 implies barely 3% upside, masking a deep divide over what Tesla actually is.
The New Valuation Playbook
Wall Street's thinking on Tesla has undergone a philosophical shift. J.P. Morgan, long a skeptic under former analyst Ryan Brinkman, upgraded the stock from "Underweight" to "Neutral" after Rajat Gupta took over coverage in May 2026. Gupta slashed his price target? No — he raised it aggressively from $145 to $475. His team argues that investors now attach Tesla's value to its future in autonomy and robotics, decoupling the share price from near-term quarterly earnings. The bank forecasts revenue more than doubling from $95 billion to around $203 billion by 2030, pegging Tesla's total addressable market at $3.9 trillion by 2035 across five segments: vehicles, energy storage, robotaxis, humanoid robots, and infrastructure licensing.
Bank of America has joined the chorus, resuming coverage with a "Buy" rating and a $460 target, calling Tesla the clear leader in autonomous driving. For these analysts, quarterly delivery numbers are secondary to the value of Tesla's software and data — a hybrid of automaker and AI platform.
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Yet the market's hesitation tells a different story. Delivery estimates for the second quarter are ticking up: Goldman Sachs' Mark Delaney raised his forecast from 405,000 to 420,000 vehicles, citing strong regional sales that could beat the consensus of 400,000. European registrations through May surged nearly 90% year-on-year, though that partly reflects a 29% drop in the year-ago period. J.P. Morgan warns of high execution risks, particularly around regulatory approvals and scaling new technologies. The core auto business still generates the lion's share of cash, even if management talks up the AI and robotics narrative.
The Brand Tarnish and the BYD Factor
Tesla's market value stands at over €1.3 trillion, but its brand value has cratered. Estimated at $27.6 billion now, it was $43 billion at the start of 2025 and $66.2 billion at its January 2023 peak. A Yale University study attributes up to 1.2 million lost vehicle sales over three years to Elon Musk's political activities. Meanwhile, Chinese rival BYD overtook Tesla in 2025, selling more than half a million additional cars. The absence of truly new models and Tesla's premium pricing relative to competitors are eating into its market position.
The Merger Talk That Won't Die
In the background, retail investors are buzzing about a possible Tesla-SpaceX merger. A social media poll found 61% of respondents expect a combination within five years. Investor Ross Gerber goes further, calling Tesla "worthless" long-term without such a union. The companies already have ties: Tesla generated over $140 million in revenue from SpaceX last year, mostly from vehicle sales. For now, Tesla's stake in SpaceX remains a financial instrument, but its daily mark-to-market could become a wild card in earnings calls.
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A Glimmer of Action in Taiwan
Away from the balance-sheet drama, Tesla filed paperwork in Taiwan on Tuesday to bring its "Full Self-Driving" software to the island. The transport ministry is reviewing the system for approval. It is a modest step, but for a company whose strategic narrative hinges on autonomy, every regulatory inch matters.
The next hard data point arrives with the second-quarter delivery report. That will test whether the underlying vehicle business can justify the valuation, while the SpaceX stake introduces a whole new source of earnings noise. Investors are left with two stocks in one — an automaker wrestling with competition and a speculative tech platform whose fate rests on moonshots both literal and figurative.
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