SpaceX’s Lock-Up Countdown: A CEO Under Fire as Short Sellers Circle
Published on 07/27/2026 at 18:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers are brutal. SpaceX shares touched a fresh all-time intraday low of €95.55 on Monday before closing at €98.14, a 3% daily decline that dragged the stock to its lowest level since the company went public. The secondary article puts the close at €97.82 with a 3.32% drop, but both sources agree on the trajectory: the equity has nearly halved from its June record of €194.46, shedding roughly 27% in the past 30 days alone.
What makes this sell-off particularly striking is the timing. The CME Group chose Monday to launch single-stock futures on SpaceX under the ticker SPCX, offering institutional and retail investors a new way to bet on or hedge against the stock’s direction. The debut landed on a day when bearish sentiment was already at fever pitch. According to data provider Ortex, roughly 56% of the free float is now out on loan, with around 196 million shares sold short — a record level of short interest that has built steadily since the June IPO.
Elon Musk, never one to stay silent, took to X to fire a warning shot directly at short sellers. He argued that the market is ignoring the company’s long-term fundamentals, pointing to capital-intensive projects like lunar and Martian infrastructure that SpaceX is prioritizing over quarterly earnings targets. President and COO Gwynne Shotwell had made the same case around the time of the IPO, telling investors the company thinks in decades, not months. Musk himself pushed to give retail investors early access to the stock — but cautioned them that the shares might not suit every risk profile.
The market isn’t buying it. At least not yet.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The bond market tells a parallel story of growing unease. SpaceX issued $25 billion in bonds across five tranches in June, with coupons ranging from 5.35% to 6.65%. The longest-dated notes, maturing in 2056, have fallen hardest and now yield 7.6% — territory typically reserved for high-risk junk debt. Credit spreads have widened from 1.75% at issuance to over 2.3%, reflecting deepening skepticism. The backdrop: SpaceX reported a first-quarter loss of $4.28 billion on revenue of $4.69 billion. Economist Peter Schiff has repeatedly called the stock’s decline a harbinger for other overvalued assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Technically, the stock is flashing oversold signals. The 14-day relative strength index has dropped to 32.2–32.4, depending on the source, pushing into the zone that often precedes a bounce. But with annualized 30-day volatility running at 64.48%–64.53%, the ride is anything but smooth. Morgan Stanley offered a striking assessment: at current levels around €100, the market is effectively pricing the company’s AI and ground-data businesses at zero.
Two dates loom large. On August 4, SpaceX will release its first quarterly report as a publicly traded company. Two days later, on August 6, lock-up restrictions expire on roughly 911.5 million insider shares. Market strategist Charlie Bilello has warned that the expiration could intensify selling pressure, as insiders sitting on substantial unrealized gains face pressure to cash out. The additional supply would hit a market already grappling with record short positions and extreme volatility.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Operationally, the company shows no signs of slowing. On Saturday, SpaceX launched 24 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base, with the Falcon 9 first stage landing cleanly on the drone ship “Of Course I Still Love You.” The day before, Starship completed its 13th test flight, this time carrying the new Starlink V3 satellites as payload. These technical milestones, however, have done little to calm investor nerves.
The convergence of earnings, lock-up expiry, and record short interest sets up a defining two-day window. Whether the stock stabilizes near current levels or slides toward new lows will depend on whether Starlink’s profitability can offset losses in the AI business — and whether Musk’s long-term vision can withstand the market’s short-term judgment.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 27 July
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