SpaceX’s Moon Mission Win Lands in the Middle of a Brutal Share Price Slide
Published on 07/17/2026 at 07:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
NASA is leaning on SpaceX’s laser communications technology for Artemis III, a reminder that the company’s space hardware is still winning high-profile contracts even as its stock trades close to its lowest levels since listing. The agency plans to mount two Starlink Mini laser terminals on the outside of the Orion capsule, using the same laser system SpaceX already runs across its Starlink network, where more than 25,000 laser links are currently active.
The terminals are designed to send 4K images and video back to Earth through invisible infrared light, allowing much larger data transfers than conventional radio systems. The setup builds on an existing NASA arrangement and follows a test during the Artemis II mission. Artemis III is due in 2028 and is meant to bring astronauts back to the Moon, while also testing docking between Orion and commercial landing systems.
That contract news arrives against a far more uncomfortable market backdrop. In euro terms, SpaceX shares are changing hands at 116.26 euro, just 0.48 percent above their 52-week low of 115.70 euro on 15 July 2026 and more than 40 percent below the record high from 16 June. On the primary source’s figures, the stock ended Thursday at 114.64 euro, only marginally above its 52-week low of 114.30 euro, after dropping more than 31 percent in 30 days from the June peak of 194.46 euro.
The U.S. listing itself has already turned from euphoria to damage control. SpaceX went public on 12 June 2026 with a 75 billion US dollar capital increase at a valuation of 1.75 trillion US dollars. The shares opened at 150 US dollars and quickly raced above 225 US dollars, but the rally reversed just as fast. On 15 July, the stock hit an all-time low of 132.15 US dollars before closing at 135.27 US dollars, leaving it roughly 40 percent below the 225.64 US dollar record set on 16 June.
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The move has also erased a large chunk of paper wealth. The company’s market value has fallen from a peak above 2.6 trillion US dollars to about 1.78 trillion US dollars. For Elon Musk, who holds 42 percent of SpaceX, that has meant a decline in net worth to around 856 billion US dollars, ending his billionaire status. Market watchers have pointed to profit-taking, valuation concerns tied to heavy AI spending, and fears of another Federal Reserve rate hike as reasons for the selloff.
The business itself remains heavily loss-making by the numbers disclosed so far. SpaceX reported a net loss of 4.9 billion US dollars for 2025, followed by another 4.3 billion US dollars in the first quarter of 2026. In June, it also issued 25 billion US dollars of bonds to finance AI infrastructure.
Short sellers have piled in as the price weakened. According to TipRanks, short interest climbed from around 40 million shares to about 185 million shares within a few weeks, equal to nearly 29 percent of free float and roughly 25 billion US dollars in value. Ortex estimated the unrealized profit for short sellers at 8.7 billion US dollars, while S3 Partners previously put the figure at 3.88 billion US dollars. New short positions worth about 5 billion US dollars were added in the past week.
A bigger supply overhang may still be ahead. After the quarterly numbers expected in early August, about 911.5 million shares worth around 123 billion US dollars are due to be unlocked for trading. With only about five percent of the stock currently in free float, that would be a major increase in available supply. If the share price climbs above 175.50 US dollars, another 455.8 million shares could be released under the lockup terms, taking free float to around 40 percent by 8 December. Musk’s own stake of roughly 60 percent remains locked until mid-2027.
Analysts remain split, but not evenly bearish. Of 32 analysts, 27 recommend buying; a separate count shows 23 of 29 with buy ratings. The consensus target ranges from 236 US dollars to 247 US dollars. Brian Gesuale of Raymond James stands out with an 800 US dollar target, which would imply a valuation of about 8.7 trillion US dollars. JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth kept a buy rating and a 225 US dollar target, Needham lifted its target to 250 US dollars, and Morgan Stanley sees 300 US dollars. On the cautious side, CFRA’s Keith Snyder has a rare sell rating and a 115 US dollar target, while Morningstar is even lower at 63 US dollars.
Operationally, SpaceX continues to rack up milestones. The company recently unveiled Starlink V5 hardware for households: the kit weighs 1.1 kilogram, less than half the V4 model, and pairs with a new Wi-Fi 6 mini-router that delivers speeds above 375 Mbit/s while drawing just 35 to 50 watts. On the same day as the Starship setback, a Falcon 9 launched 21 communications satellites for the U.S. Space Development Agency, part of the Tranche 1 transport layer built to strengthen secure communications for the U.S. military and allies. That mission also marked SpaceX’s 639th successful landing of a rocket stage.
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Starship, however, remains the company’s most visible source of volatility. The 13th test flight on 16 July was the first since the IPO. The V3 vehicle lifted off from Starbase in Texas at 17:45 local time with 20 Starlink V3 satellites aboard. The flight was meant to gather data on an in-orbit engine ignition, satellite deployment and heat-shield performance ahead of a possible orbital mission on the 14th attempt. On the earlier test referenced by the company, the launch was automatically aborted because several of the 33 Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster failed to ignite, and Musk said two engines need to be replaced; a new attempt is possible no earlier than the beginning of next week.
SpaceX says it has invested more than 15 billion US dollars in Starship development and still has a NASA contract worth 4 billion US dollars for a Moon landing from 2028. Starlink also remains a growth engine, generating 11.4 billion US dollars in revenue in 2025, while new GPU leasing deals with Anthropic and Google have helped lift revenue projections from about 18 billion US dollars to as much as 62 billion US dollars next year.
For now, the investment case is split cleanly in two: real progress in orbital communications and government contracts on one side, and a stock still digesting its post-listing unwind, an imminent lockup expiry and a string of Starship setbacks on the other.
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