SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 Debut Marred by Colossus Lawsuit and Tesla Merger Jitters
Published on 07/08/2026 at 03:55 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A legal battle over the Colossus data center threatens to unravel a $45 billion partnership with Anthropic just as SpaceX begins its new life as a Nasdaq-100 constituent. The lawsuit, which accuses the company of operating gas turbines without proper permits, demands the immediate shutdown of the facility — a move that would jeopardise the multi-billion-dollar AI contract. The timing could hardly be more inopportune.
Spacex officially joined the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, triggering an estimated $4.3 billion in forced buying from passive index funds. Yet the actual impact on the share price has been muted, with the stock dropping more than 5% on Tuesday. The heavy allocation — roughly 1.3% of the index — is still small compared to tech titans like Nvidia or Tesla, and the limited free float, under 5%, means the index-driven bids are competing with a thin pool of available shares.
The debut also marked the end of a quiet period for underwriters, unleashing a flurry of analyst coverage. Morgan Stanley leads with the most aggressive target at $300, implying an 87% upside from the current $160 level, built on the thesis that SpaceX will dominate the AI infrastructure market — a business they project could generate $3.3 trillion in revenue by 2040. Bernstein started coverage at $239, while UBS set a more conservative $210, praising the reusable rockets and the Starlink network. The most bullish call comes from Raymond James with a $800 target. The average analyst view stands at $236.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Not all the headlines are friendly. Speculation about a merger with Tesla has resurfaced after JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta argued the combination makes strategic sense given the shared technical staff and AI infrastructure. He warned, however, that regulatory hurdles, particularly in China, would be extreme. The ownership structure complicates matters further: Elon Musk controls around 85% of voting rights through a dual-class arrangement, while he holds roughly 42% of the economic interest. Any deal would heavily dilute Tesla shareholders, and the electric car maker’s stock fell about 4% on the rumor.
The fundamental picture adds another layer of tension. In 2025, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue but posted a net loss of nearly $5 billion. Capital expenditures ran at over $10 billion in the first quarter alone as the company pours cash into new projects. The price-to-sales ratio of more than 112 leaves no room for stumbles, and the heavy investment cycle keeps profitability distant.
Adding to the near-term risk, lockup restrictions begin to expire in a staggered fashion. The first tranche of insider shares becomes free to trade immediately after the second-quarter earnings release, expected in late July or early August. Additional tranches will unlock over the following 70 to 135 days, threatening significant selling pressure. Musk’s personal wealth has taken a hit too — down more than $500 billion from its peak, according to one estimate.
For now, the stock trades well below the average analyst target, and the index-fueled buying is being offset by legal uncertainty, merger speculation, and the looming overhang from insider sales. The Colossus case alone could force the company into a costly legal battle or a renegotiation of the Anthropic deal, while the prospects of a Tesla tie-up remain distant. Investors trying to price this constellation of factors face a volatile ride ahead.
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