SpaceX's Staged Lock-Up and Soaring Valuation Set the Stage for a Critical Test
Published on 07/19/2026 at 23:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The mechanics of SpaceX's post-IPO trading are as unconventional as the company itself. Rather than a single lock-up expiry that typically floods the market with insider shares, the rocket and satellite giant structured its debut with a staggered release tied to quarterly earnings reports. The first and largest tranche — roughly 911.5 million shares, representing nearly 20% of locked-up stock — becomes tradable just days after the company reports second-quarter results, a date market participants expect to land on August 6, 2026. That looming overhang has already taken a toll: on Friday, shares slid 5.39% to €108.40, marking a sixth consecutive losing session and a fresh 52-week low. The stock has now shed nearly 15% in a week and close to 35% over the past month, sitting 44% below its June peak of €194.46 and even beneath the $135 initial public offering price.
The staged release was designed to prevent the abrupt supply shock that haunts many IPOs. Employees and select early investors can sell only on the second trading day after the quarterly report, and additional tranches follow in August, September and October — each roughly 7% of the locked-up block. A secondary trigger would have freed another 455.8 million shares if the stock closed above $175.50 for at least five of the ten trading days before the earnings release, but the recent rout has pushed the price far below that threshold, rendering that clause moot for now. Elon Musk’s own stake remains untouched until 2027, but by early December roughly 40% of all SpaceX shares could be freely tradeable. The entire 180-day lock-up period ends on December 8, 2026.
Despite the relentless sell-off, Wall Street remains broadly bullish. Of the 32 analysts tracked by LSEG, 27 rate the stock a buy, four are neutral and only one — Morningstar — recommends selling. That lone sell rating implies a fair value of just $62 per share, while the bulls range from Morgan Stanley’s $300 target all the way to Raymond James’ $800. The median across 18 banks sits at $225, a level also cited by J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank. Yet skeptics argue the lofty price targets ignore the sheer scale of the IPO. Gary Black of Future Fund points out that with an initial public float of less than $100 billion supporting a market cap above $2 trillion, the supply-demand imbalance is stark. He calls the stock “ridiculously overvalued” at roughly 45 times expected 2026 revenue.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Short sellers have taken notice. According to CNBC data cited in one report, about 185 million shares are now sold short — roughly 29% of the free float — representing bets worth around $25 billion. The bearish positioning reflects not only the lock-up overhang but also broader unease about SpaceX’s sprawling business model, which combines rocket manufacturing, satellite internet and artificial intelligence ambitions. A sector-wide sell-off in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks this week added to the pressure, as investors question whether the pace of AI spending is sustainable. SpaceX itself issued $25 billion in bonds in June to refinance bridge loans tied to the integration of Musk’s xAI and X, with maturities stretching to 2056 and coupons between 5.35% and 6.65%.
At its current valuation of roughly €1.44 trillion — more than 80 times annual revenue and with the company still burning billions — the debate over fair value shows no sign of cooling. The relative strength index sits at 34.6, nudging into oversold territory, while the annualized 30-day volatility of over 93% underscores the frenetic trading since the June debut. The immediate catalysts are clear: an official confirmation of the Q2 earnings date, followed by the first wave of insider sales. If early investors and employees hold their shares, it would signal confidence in the $2 trillion-plus market cap; if they sell en masse, the pressure could intensify well before the much larger October release of 1.3 billion shares tied to the third-quarter report. For now, the stock is hovering just above its one-year low — and the market is waiting to see whether the staged unlock brings stability or accelerates the slide.
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