SpaceX's Twin Launch Aborts Fuel Investor Unease as Stock Nears 52-Week Low
Published on 07/20/2026 at 20:33 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX confronted a rare double setback last week, with aborted launches on both its workhorse Falcon 9 and flagship Starship systems within the same seven-day period. The consecutive engine-related failures come at a delicate moment: shares of the space and satellite-internet giant are trading just a few euros above their all-time low, and a looming lock-up expiration is adding to the selling pressure.
The first glitch struck on July 16 during the countdown for Starship Flight 13. Only 29 of the 33 Raptor-3 engines ignited at the pad in Texas, forcing SpaceX to abort. Two engines need to be replaced, and the launch was pushed back first to July 23 and then again to 12:45 a.m. Central European Time on July 24. The mission is crucial: it is slated to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites – too large for the Falcon 9 – and to perform an in-space reignition test of the Raptor engines, a key milestone for NASA's Artemis program. Six of the satellites carry cameras to document the spacecraft's heat shield. Just days later, on Monday, a Falcon 9 rocket at Vandenberg Space Force Base lit its nine Merlin engines before shutting them down instantly. The flight, which was to carry two dozen Starlink V2-Mini satellites, was called off. SpaceX confirmed the rocket and payload were safe but has not said whether the booster must be swapped. The previous Merlin abort during a launch attempt occurred more than a year ago.
Shares closed Monday at €107.26, down 1.05%, and now sit only 1.88% above the 52-week low of €105.28 set on July 20. Over the past 30 days, the stock has tumbled more than 30%, erasing roughly $1 trillion in market capitalization from its peak. The relative strength index stands at 35.1, suggesting oversold conditions but not yet extreme, while annualized volatility of 91% highlights the frayed nerves since the Nasdaq listing.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Additional headwinds are building from the supply side. After earnings are reported on August 17, a lock-up period expires, freeing about 1.37 billion shares – roughly 20% of the shares eligible for early release. Short sellers have already amassed a 30% short interest in the float, sitting on paper profits of about $5 billion since the June IPO. A second 180-day lock-up for other shareholders will not lapse until December.
Wall Street, however, remains broadly optimistic even after the price slide. Evercore ISI initiated coverage on July 20 with an Outperform rating and a $230 target. JPMorgan sees fair value at $225, Needham at $250, Raymond James at $800, and Morgan Stanley at $300. Among 37 analysts, 30 rate the stock a Buy, six a Hold, and only one a Sell. The average 12-month price target of $235.34 implies roughly 90% upside from current levels.
Elsewhere, a report of a $52 billion server deal with Foxconn was dismissed by Elon Musk as "fake news" – the stock actually gained about 1% overnight on the denial. Confirmed, however, are ongoing talks for a multi-billion-dollar Pentagon cloud-computing contract and existing data-center agreements with Google and Anthropic. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest took advantage of the weakness to buy $56.9 million of SpaceX shares between July 13 and 17, partly funded by selling $39 million of AMD stock.
The twin launch failures test SpaceX's core promise of high-frequency, reliable launches. The company has not disclosed whether the Falcon 9 booster needs to be replaced, and investors will scrutinize the rescheduled Starship test flight this week for clues on whether the engine hiccups are isolated or indicative of deeper issues. For a stock already under pressure from lock-up overhang and aggressive short selling, a smooth return to the pad may be the most immediate catalyst.
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