SpaceX Shares Slip Toward Their Floor as Starship Test Misses Its Window
Published on 07/17/2026 at 04:04 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares are entering a pivotal stretch with the stock already hovering near a fresh low and a major lockup release waiting in the wings. The latest setback came from the launch pad in Texas, where the 13th Starship test flight was stopped before liftoff after the onboard computer halted the countdown four seconds before launch.
The automated flight system called the abort at T-0 on Thursday at Starbase, Texas. Telemetry indicated that at least four engines failed to ignite during the start sequence. Elon Musk said the rocket would now be drained of fuel, adding that two Raptor engines would be removed and replaced. He said the next attempt was most likely at the beginning of next week.
Ground crews immediately began putting the vehicle into a safe condition, which required the complete venting of millions of pounds of cryogenic methane and oxygen. SpaceX did not initially give a new launch date. The mission was supposed to be the first Starship flight since the company’s stock market debut and, unlike the May mission, would have carried 20 production-ready Starlink V3 satellites. Engineers also wanted to confirm hardware changes made after the previous flight.
That operational milestone now slips into the future. A successful launch would have opened the door to more regular orbital missions and the first attempt to catch the upper stage, “Ship,” directly with the launch tower at Starbase platform 2.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Investors have already been under pressure. In after-hours trading, the stock lost more than three percent. By Thursday’s close it stood at 114.58 euros, down almost ten percent over the past week and more than 31 percent over the past month. The share price is now just above its 52-week low of 114.30 euros, reached this week, and more than 41 percent below its record high of 194.46 euros from June last year. A 37.6 RSI points to an oversold market, while annualized 30-day volatility of almost 94 percent underlines how unsettled trading has become.
In dollar terms, the stock has also been under intense strain. On 15 July it hit an all-time low of 132.15 US dollars before finishing the session at 135.27 US dollars. That leaves it about 40 percent below the 225.64 US dollars peak set on 16 June, and on the day of its market debut it opened at 150 US dollars after SpaceX went public on 12 June 2026 through a 75 billion US dollars capital increase. The company was valued at 1.75 trillion US dollars at the IPO.
The collapse in the share price has erased much of the initial euphoria. SpaceX’s market value fell from an interim high above 2.6 trillion US dollars to about 1.78 trillion US dollars most recently. Musk, who owns 42 percent of the company, has seen his fortune shrink to roughly 856 billion US dollars, costing him billionaire status.
The selloff has also drawn in short sellers. TipRanks says short interest climbed from around 40 million shares to roughly 185 million shares in a matter of weeks, equal to nearly 29 percent of the free float and worth about 25 billion US dollars. Ortex estimated the paper profit on those positions at 8.7 billion US dollars, while S3 Partners put it at 3.88 billion US dollars at an earlier point. About 5 billion US dollars in new short positions were added in the past week alone.
A larger supply overhang is approaching too. After the quarterly results expected in early August, about 911.5 million shares worth roughly 123 billion US dollars are scheduled to come out of lockup. With the free float currently at only around five percent, that would be a major increase in tradable stock. If the price rises above 175.50 US dollars, another 455.8 million shares could be released under the lockup terms, taking the free float to around 40 percent by 8 December. Musk’s own stake of around 60 percent stays locked until mid-2027.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Despite the weak tape, Wall Street remains divided rather than uniformly bearish. Depending on the survey, 27 of 32 or 23 of 29 analysts still rate the shares a buy, and the consensus target sits between 236 and 247 US dollars. At one extreme, Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale has a target of 800 US dollars, implying a valuation of about 8.7 trillion US dollars. JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth kept a buy rating with a 225 US dollars target, Needham raised its objective to 250 US dollars, and Morgan Stanley sees 300 US dollars. On the cautious side, CFRA’s Keith Snyder has a rare sell rating and a 115 US dollars target, arguing that the company needs real growth rather than speculation. Morningstar is even lower at 63 US dollars.
Even after the aborted launch, SpaceX still points to a broad growth story. It says it has invested more than 15 billion US dollars in Starship development and holds a 4 billion US dollars NASA contract for a moon landing from 2028. Starlink remains another support for the case, having generated 11.4 billion US dollars in revenue in 2025. The company has also struck new GPU leasing contracts with Anthropic and Google, with revenue models suggesting a rise from about 18 billion US dollars to as much as 62 billion US dollars next year.
For now, though, the stock is being driven less by the long-term narrative than by near-term execution. The next Starship attempt is expected as soon as next week, and that flight may do as much to shape sentiment as any analyst target or valuation model.
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