SpaceX Shares Slump Toward Record Lows as August Brings a Triple Threat
Published on 07/24/2026 at 21:40 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX’s stock is under mounting pressure, sliding to €100.66 in recent trading — a drop of 3.17 percent on the day and within a single cent of the 52-week low of €97.54 set just yesterday. The decline from the all-time high of €194.46, reached in mid-June shortly after the company’s Nasdaq debut, now amounts to nearly half the stock’s value. The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 33.7, a level that typically signals oversold conditions and hints at a potential technical rebound. But with annualized volatility running at 67.26 percent, traders remain wary of catching a falling knife.
The €100 threshold has become a critical psychological battleground. A sustained break below that level could trigger a wave of selling from retail investors who piled in after the historic initial public offering, many of whom are now sitting on significant losses.
A Pivotal Stretch in Early August
The current jitters are not merely a reaction to recent price action — they are a prelude to what analysts are calling the “August stress test” for the newly public company. On August 4, SpaceX is scheduled to release its first quarterly earnings report as a listed entity. Investors are hungry for clarity on two fronts: the profitability of the Starlink satellite business and the scale of capital outflows tied to the Starship development program.
Just two days later, on August 6, the lock-up period expires for insiders and early investors. That will unlock 911.5 million shares — a block worth more than $110 billion at current prices — for trading. Short sellers, who according to market estimates are already sitting on paper gains of roughly $15.5 billion from the recent sell-off, are betting that the flood of newly tradable stock will add further downward pressure. Short interest remains elevated as the market waits to see whether the earnings report can steady nerves before the lock-up deadline arrives.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Alphabet’s Stake Offers Little Near-Term Support
Alphabet’s latest quarterly filing provided a fresh data point for valuation watchers. The Google parent disclosed that its stake in SpaceX is now worth $94.1 billion. That investment began modestly in January 2015, when Alphabet and Fidelity poured between $500 million and $900 million into the company at a $12 billion valuation. Subsequent funding rounds and the merger with Musk’s AI startup xAI in early 2026 diluted Alphabet’s holding to roughly 4.9 percent, but the June IPO sent the value of the remaining shares soaring.
Combined with gains from its stake in AI firm Anthropic, Alphabet booked $99.0 billion in realized and unrealized income from equity investments in the second quarter. Yet the vast majority of that paper wealth is inaccessible. Lock-up agreements restrict the sale of $80 billion of the SpaceX position in the near term, while another $14.1 billion is classified as long-term restricted and cannot be sold until the third quarter of 2027. The structure is deliberate: a sudden dump of shares by anchor investors like Alphabet would swamp the market and likely push the stock sharply lower.
Starship Flight 13 Adds Operational Uncertainty
Compounding the financial calendar is an operational wild card. The launch window for the 13th Starship test flight opens today at SpaceX’s Texas facility. Previous attempts have been delayed by technical glitches and adverse weather, and the mission is under intense scrutiny. The key milestone will be the successful deployment of the new “V3” Starlink satellites, which would demonstrate that the next-generation constellation is functioning efficiently. Any setback could further rattle a stock that is already searching for a floor.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The convergence of the earnings report, the lock-up expiry, and the Starship test flight within a span of three days means SpaceX is facing its most consequential week since going public. For now, the stock is caught between technical oversold signals and a wall of fundamental uncertainty — a tension that is unlikely to resolve until the market sees hard numbers on August 4.
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