SpaceX Stock: A $131 Price Target Collides With $300 Optimism as a 36th Booster Landing Can't Erase the IPO Hangover
Published on 07/10/2026 at 17:17 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares are struggling to hold above their initial public offering price, caught between a wall of bullish Wall Street forecasts and a solitary bearish voice that thinks the stock is worth 18% less than where it currently trades. The tension comes despite an operational milestone that would typically boost sentiment: a Falcon 9 first stage completed its record 36th launch and landing on July 9, hauling 29 Starlink satellites into orbit from Cape Canaveral.
The stock closed at $152.16 on July 10, up 2.6% on the day but still a far cry from the all-time high of $225.64 it touched on June 16, just four days after its market debut. At its low on July 8, the equity hit $145.20 — dangerously close to the $135 issue price from the June 12 IPO, which raised $85.7 billion after underwriters exercised their greenshoe option and valued the company at roughly $1.75 trillion. Trading actually opened at $150 on day one, so the stock has now slipped below that watermark.
The catalyst for the recent slide was itself a positive event: entry into the Nasdaq-100. On July 7, the first day of index membership, shares tumbled 6.8% to close at $149.47. Passive funds were forced to buy an estimated $4 billion worth of stock that day, but selling pressure from other parties overwhelmed those mandatory purchases. Analysts describe the pattern as a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" episode that appears to be fading.
Divergent analyst calls
MoffettNathanson kicked off coverage with a neutral rating and a price target of $131 — the only bearish stance among the initial batch of Wall Street analysts. The boutique research firm called SpaceX’s estimate of a nearly $30 trillion total addressable market "absurd" and questioned the company’s projections for direct-to-device satellite services. It reserved its harshest criticism for Elon Musk’s plan to launch 100 gigawatts of computing capacity into orbit by the end of 2029, arguing that the required raw materials simply do not exist in sufficient quantities. "It would be easy — some would say smart — to start with a clear sell rating," the team wrote, but stopped short of an outright sell, noting that investors are treating SpaceX like an option on business lines that haven’t been invented yet.
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The rest of Wall Street disagrees emphatically. Morgan Stanley rates the stock "Overweight" with a $300 target, calling the launch business a flywheel that powers both Starlink and future AI infrastructure projects. Bernstein sees "Outperform" at $239, RBC also "Outperform" at $225, UBS recommends "Buy" with a 12-month target of $210, and Citi is "Buy" at $200. JPMorgan, which also rates the stock "Overweight" at $225, added a twist by publishing a note on a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger.
Merger talk and lock-up risks
JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta described a combination of SpaceX and Tesla as "strategically sound on paper," allowing Musk to unify vision and engineering across both platforms. But he cautioned that media reports underestimate the regulatory hurdles, especially in markets where Tesla has significant manufacturing operations. A further complication: Musk controls roughly 85% of SpaceX’s voting power but only 20% of Tesla’s, meaning any deal would look more like a SpaceX takeover than a merger of equals.
Meanwhile, investors are eyeing an approaching overhang. According to 22V Research strategist Jeff Jacobson, insiders could sell up to 44% of SpaceX shares by early September. The first tranche — 20% of the shares that have been prematurely unlocked — becomes tradable after the company reports its first quarterly results, expected in late July or early August.
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Operational strength amid the noise
The Falcon 9’s 36th flight of the same booster — designated B1067 — landed precisely on the droneship A Shortfall of Gravitas after a 31-day turnaround, underscoring the fleet’s reusability efficiency. The mission was part of a launch cadence that has already exceeded 80 successful Falcon flights this year, a pace that underpins the bullish thesis of most analysts. Even the bears at MoffettNathanson acknowledge that the stock behaves like an option on future business lines yet to be invented — a description that might explain why a record rocket flight and a $1.75 trillion valuation coexist with a flat-lining share price.
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