SpaceX Stock: Index Buying of $4.3 Billion Fails to Lift Shares as xAI Losses and Tesla Merger Questions Mount
Published on 07/09/2026 at 06:34 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares ended Wednesday at $148, marking a second straight session below the $150 IPO price and underscoring how a gale-force tailwind of passive buying has so far failed to steady the stock. The rocket builder's entry into the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday triggered an estimated $4.3 billion of forced purchases from index-tracking funds, yet the market response has been anything but celebratory.
The inclusion arrived at breakneck speed — one of the fastest in history, thanks to a new Nasdaq rule that allows newly listed companies to join after just 15 trading days rather than waiting for the next quarterly rebalancing. JPMorgan calculated that the weight of SpaceX in the index would be capped at roughly 1.3% because its free float is only 4–5%, placing it 21st behind Nvidia, Walmart, Intel and fellow Musk venture Tesla.
A $62 Billion Valuation Gap Between Bulls and Bears
The quiet period that followed June’s record $85.7 billion IPO ended this week, unleashing a torrent of analyst coverage. Nineteen firms published ratings and price targets, with the median sitting at $250 — implying roughly 56% upside from Monday's close. But the dispersion is extraordinary.
Raymond James leads the bullish camp with an $800 target, while Morgan Stanley sees $300 ($600 in a bull case, $75 in a bear) and Bernstein and Wells Fargo check in at $239 and $230 respectively. At the other end, CFRA recommends selling outright, and MoffettNathanson’s Julie Zhu initiated with neutral and a $131 target — representing 18% downside. She dismissed SpaceX’s stated addressable market of $30 trillion as “absurd” and questioned Elon Musk’s plan to deliver 100 gigawatts of orbital computing power by 2029, saying no credible financial model justifies the current $2 trillion valuation.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The Fundamental Drag: xAI’s Cash Burn
Behind the share-price weakness lies a mounting earnings problem. SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.9 billion for 2025, and the first quarter of 2026 added another $4.3 billion in red ink. A key culprit is the integrated AI startup xAI, whose billion-dollar revenues are swamped by its operating expenses.
Morgan Stanley has warned that the company’s capital requirements could escalate to $300 billion annually by 2031, pushing total external funding needs to roughly $84 billion. If debt markets turn hostile, the bank cautions, new equity issuance could severely dilute existing shareholders. Positive free cash flow, in analysts’ view, is not expected before 2035.
JPMorgan Fans Tesla Merger Speculation
Adding to the uncertainty, JPMorgan revived talk of a potential combination with Tesla. Analyst Rajat Gupta described the idea as “coherent on paper,” citing the vertical integration that would link AI, robotics, energy, transport and space under Musk’s unified leadership. Musk already controls about 85% of SpaceX voting rights compared to around 20% at Tesla, which holds roughly 19 million SpaceX shares.
Yet Gupta flagged serious obstacles. The voting disparity could spook Tesla minority holders worried about dilution, and the size gap between the two companies might make any deal look more like a Tesla takeover by SpaceX than a merger of equals. Regulatory approvals — particularly in China, where Tesla has deep production and sales ties — add another layer of complexity. JPMorgan maintained a hold rating on Tesla with a $475 price target. RBC Capital was more upbeat, lifting its Tesla target to $500 and keeping an outperform rating, building in a 25–30% premium to account for a possible SpaceX acquisition scenario.
Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX’s president, recently acknowledged that a future merger “could make Elon’s life a little easier,” stopping short of ruling it out. The two companies already share engineering teams, AI infrastructure, and the Terafab chip plant in Texas. SpaceX buys Tesla Megapacks and Cybertrucks, while Tesla has invested $2 billion in xAI.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
A Familiar Pattern for New Index Members
Historical precedent offers some comfort: over the past two years, stocks joining the Nasdaq-100 have fallen an average of 3.8% in their first week only to rebound 6.3% after three months. Whether SpaceX follows that script will depend heavily on the growth trajectory of Starlink, which is expected to provide the next major catalyst.
For now, the stock is caught between a deluge of bullish analyst rhetoric and cold hard numbers — billions in losses, a capital-intensive roadmap, and a speculative merger story that adds both upside hype and downside risk. Cboe vice-president JJ Kinahan has warned investors to brace for swings of up to $20 in either direction over the coming ten trading days.
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