SpaceX Stock Nears Record Low as Starship Abort and Profit Concerns Offset Pentagon Potential
Published on 07/18/2026 at 14:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares closed at €108.40 on Friday, down 5.39% on the day, leaving the stock just a whisper above its 52-week low of €107.34 struck on July 17. The slide comes despite two blockbuster narratives: a late-stage abort of Starship Flight 13 and early-stage talks between the company and the Pentagon over a multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure deal. For now, the market is weighing the immediate operational hiccup and the company's persistent losses more heavily than the potential strategic windfall.
The abort occurred Thursday evening at SpaceX's Starbase facility in Texas, when automated flight computers halted the countdown at T-0 during the ignition sequence. Chief executive Elon Musk confirmed on Friday that four of the Super Heavy booster's 33 Raptor engines failed to ignite properly. Technicians are replacing two of the affected engines, and Musk has targeted a second launch attempt for "early next week," with Monday July 20 already flagged as a possible date. The test flight is critical for the Starship program, which underpins NASA's Artemis lunar missions and SpaceX's goal of achieving a monthly launch cadence.
Since hitting an all-time high of €194.46 on June 16, the stock has erased 44.26% of its value. In U.S. dollar terms, the shares have dipped below their $135 IPO price from June 12 — a psychological threshold that amplifies the post-listing hangover. The 30-day annualized volatility stands at a frantic 93.16%, and the relative strength index at 34.6 signals the stock is approaching oversold territory without yet producing a clear reversal.
The sell-off has deepened a split on Wall Street about where the company is headed. Piper Sandler initiated coverage last week with a neutral rating and a $156 price target, arguing that "idiosyncratic short-term headwinds" — namely staggered lock-up expirations for early investors and uncertainty about a possible Tesla acquisition — cap the upside. The firm also flagged skepticism about SpaceX's plans for orbital AI data centers, noting that the market needs time to assess what it called a "truly world-changing approach." At the time of the call, the stock traded near $143.
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That caution stands in stark contrast to the bullish camp. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and others issued buy-equivalent ratings after the IPO quiet period ended in early July, with price targets ranging from $205 to as high as $800. JPMorgan reaffirmed an Overweight rating and a $225 target just before Piper Sandler's note. Of 31 analysts tracked by Yahoo Finance, 27 rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and the average target sits at $242.
A key reason for the restraint among more skeptical analysts is SpaceX's bottom line. Its AI division alone is projected to lose $6.4 billion in 2025, with another $2.5 billion in losses forecast for the first quarter of 2026. For the full year, the company expects a net loss of $4.9 billion — a number that makes long-range cash-flow forecasts particularly hazy, especially when the end markets for space-based AI and connectivity remain ill-defined.
On the positive ledger, the Pentagon talks reported by the Wall Street Journal could reshape SpaceX's identity. Early-stage discussions envision the company providing dedicated data-center capacity for the Defense Department's advanced AI models, structured similarly to the multiyear pact SpaceX signed with Google in June — a deal valued at roughly $920 million per month through 2029. If finalized, the arrangement would transform SpaceX from a pure-play rocket and satellite operator into a credible rival to established cloud providers.
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For now, though, the technical picture dominates. The €107.34 floor is the line in the sand; a break below that level would send the stock into uncharted territory beneath the IPO reference point. The next critical catalyst arrives Monday, with the Starship reattempt. A clean launch could shift sentiment quickly; another failure would likely pile more pressure on a stock that is already testing the patience of even its most ardent long-term believers.
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