SpaceX Stock Slips to $145 as Index-Fund Influx Fails to Ignite a Rally and a Lock-Up Looms
Published on 07/11/2026 at 13:54 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The forced buying that typically accompanies a Nasdaq-100 addition was supposed to provide a powerful tailwind for SpaceX shares. When the rocket builder officially joined the index on July 7, index funds—led by the QQQ—needed to absorb as much as $4.3 billion in stock, and total inflows from all Nasdaq-100 and Russell trackers could have reached $27 billion. With only 3% to 5% of the float freely traded, the arithmetic seemed to point firmly upward. Instead, the stock inched just 1% higher on inclusion day to close at $158.77, then slid steadily through the rest of the week to end Friday at $145.39—a loss of roughly 9.4% since Monday. Most funds had front-loaded their purchases before the open, leaving little room for a follow-through.
That Friday decline coincided with two events that cast a shadow over the near-term outlook. SpaceX successfully test-fired all 33 Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster for Starship Flight 13 at the Starbase facility in Texas, with the FAA confirming a tentative launch date of July 14, 2026 for the mission. Yet the same session brought news of a milestone from China: the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) recovered the first stage of a Long-March-10B rocket for the first time, catching the booster in a net system on a floating platform. While SpaceX remains the clear leader—it has completed more than 600 successful booster landings, and a single Falcon 9 booster just flew for the 36th time—the Chinese achievement dampened the so-called "Musk premium" that has buoyed the stock since its IPO.
Wall Street remains deeply divided on where the shares go from here. Of the 27 analysts covering the name, 26 rate it a buy and only one recommends selling. The average 12-month price target stands at $242.22, representing upside of roughly 67% from Friday's close. Raymond James' Brian Gesuale initiated coverage with a strong buy, comparing SpaceX's infrastructure to the invention of electricity. On the other end, CFRA Research's Keith Snyder maintains a sell rating with a $115 target, arguing that a valuation near 101 times forward revenue has priced in speculative hopes far ahead of actual growth. The options market flashed its own caution flag on Friday: unusual volume in long-dated puts with an $80 strike and a late-2028 expiration suggests institutional hedging against further downside.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Operationally, the company continues to rack up records. The Falcon 9 booster B1067—which first flew in June 2021 on a NASA cargo mission and has since carried astronauts on Crew-3 and Crew-4 as well as 24 Starlink batches—made its 36th launch and landing on Thursday, deploying another 29 Starlink satellites. The touchdown on the drone ship A Shortfall of Gravitas marked the vessel's 160th landing and SpaceX's 635th overall. Meanwhile, the Starship program is targeting monthly flight rates, though company executives stress that Flight 13 remains a test mission; full orbital injection is not expected until Flight 14.
Technically, the stock has settled into a narrow trading band. A breakout above $168.90 could open the path toward $175.90, while a close below $149.90 would invalidate the current pattern. Support at roughly $161 has held so far, reinforced by a triple bottom and a rising trend line. Resistance lies between $175 and $185, and a sustained move above $175.90 could propel the shares toward $185.10.
The next critical date is August 6, when SpaceX reports quarterly earnings and the first insider lock-up period expires. Approximately 20% of insider-held shares will become eligible for sale, and if the stock has reached certain thresholds relative to the IPO price of $135, an additional 10% could be unlocked. That flood of supply comes at a time when the stock is trading at about 118 times expected 2025 revenue—a multiple that even the most bullish bulls concede will face a stern test from the earnings report. The combination of index mechanics, rising competition from China, and a looming overhang of insider shares creates a volatile backdrop for a name that has already lost more than 35% from its post-IPO high of $225.64.
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