SpaceX Stock Stabilizes as Falcon 9 Sets Reusability Record, but Analyst Price Targets Range from $75 to $800
Published on 07/10/2026 at 19:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares found a floor near $148 on July 8, then caught a tailwind from the company’s own operations. The next day, a Falcon 9 first stage flying for the 36th time — a fleet record — lifted 29 Starlink satellites into orbit and landed on the droneship A Shortfall of Gravitas in the Atlantic. The booster’s turnaround time of just 31 days underscored the efficiency of the reusable fleet, giving investors a tangible reminder of the company’s engineering edge even as the stock traded well below its post-IPO peak.
The IPO itself, on June 12, priced at $135 per share and netted $85.7 billion after underwriters exercised their overallotment option — one of the largest listings in financial history. In the first week of trading, the stock surged to $225 before sliding back to $160. By July 8, it had hit a post-IPO low of $148.30. The subsequent record flight helped stabilize sentiment, though the shares remain well shy of that early high.
Wall Street’s official coverage kicked off on July 7, when the IPO’s lock-up expired for the syndicate banks. Six major institutions initiated with buy ratings on the same day the stock joined the Nasdaq-100 — an index entry that JPMorgan estimated triggered roughly $4.3 billion in passive buying. Yet the combined effect of bullish analyst notes and index inflows has not produced a clear rally.
The price targets reveal a staggering divergence. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas set a base case of $300 — 87% above the July 7 close of $160.42 — with a bull scenario of $600 and a bear case of just $75. Raymond James went even higher, assigning a “Strong Buy” and an $800 target, calling SpaceX “one of the defining industrial companies of the 21st century.” At the other end of the spectrum, Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan issued a buy rating but with a modest $205 target. Bernstein, UBS and Citi also chimed in with buy-equivalent ratings and targets of $239, $210 and $200 respectively. Only MoffettNathanson took a neutral stance. The gap between Goldman’s $205 and Morgan Stanley’s $300 represents a valuation chasm of more than $1 trillion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Morgan Stanley’s conviction rests on a thesis that goes beyond rockets. Jonas argues SpaceX can “convert energy into intelligence at scale and monetize it across consumer and enterprise solutions — leading the next era of AI.” The numbers behind that vision are enormous: the bank forecasts $319 billion in revenue by decade’s end and $3.3 trillion by 2040. But the same report warns of a staggering capital burden. SpaceX would need to invest $300 billion annually from 2031, with positive free cash flow not expected until 2035. The biggest risk, according to Morgan Stanley, is an external capital requirement of $84 billion per year between 2027 and 2034. Goldman’s own projections are ambitious too — it sees revenue doubling this year and adjusted EBITDA reaching $352 billion by 2030, with positive free cash flow arriving a year earlier than Morgan Stanley’s estimate.
Meanwhile, the prospect of a merger with Tesla continues to fuel speculation. JPMorgan’s Rajat Gupta wrote that a combination appears “strategically coherent on paper,” allowing Elon Musk to unify vision, mission and technical leadership across both platforms. JPMorgan rates SpaceX “Overweight” with a $225 target. The bank points to existing ties: shared engineering talent, AI infrastructure and the Terafab chip plant in Texas. SpaceX buys Megapack batteries and Cybertrucks from Tesla, while Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI — now part of SpaceX — and holds about 19 million SpaceX shares.
But JPMorgan cautions that a near-term deal is unlikely. Musk controls roughly 85% of SpaceX’s voting power but only about 20% of Tesla’s, creating a governance asymmetry that could complicate negotiations and spook Tesla minority shareholders worried about dilution. The size disparity makes a fusion look more like a SpaceX takeover of Tesla, and the regulatory hurdles — particularly in China, where Tesla operates a major factory while SpaceX is a critical U.S. defense contractor — are formidable.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, the stock is trading in a range that suggests the market is recalibrating after the IPO frenzy. The recent low near $148 sits close to the original offer price, hinting at a technical support level as the “buy the rumor, sell the news” phase fades. With the company having already completed over 80 Falcon missions this year and a packed launch schedule ahead, the focus is shifting from listing hype to fundamental execution. Tesla’s second-quarter earnings, due later this month, could reignite the merger narrative and add another layer of volatility.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 10 July
Fresh SpaceX information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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