Starship Glitch Adds Fuel to SpaceX's Post-IPO Tailspin as Lockup Looms
Published on 07/17/2026 at 13:46 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A botched engine ignition at Starbase has turned up the heat on SpaceX’s already beleaguered stock, compounding the selling pressure from short sellers who have booked nearly $9 billion in paper profits since the June IPO. The failed launch of Starship Flight 13 on July 16, during which four of the 33 Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster failed to fire, sent shares sliding to their first-ever close below the $135 IPO price. By Friday’s European session, the stock was changing hands at €109.52, a 4.47% drop on the day and barely 0.46% above the 52-week low of €108.72 set just the day before.
The episode marks the second consecutive test flight of the new V3 Starship to encounter trouble—the May 2026 mission had seen the booster fail to land and the upper stage lose an engine. With the FAA having only cleared launches again on July 13, the aborted countdown on the evening of July 16 was a particularly ill-timed blow. Elon Musk confirmed that two engines require replacement and that a fresh attempt could come early next week, but the market had already reacted: after-hours trading on Nasdaq saw the stock briefly sink to around $124.
Those after-hours moves extended a slide that has erased roughly $1.2 trillion in market capitalisation since the stock hit its all-time high of roughly $225 in mid-June. Musk’s personal fortune, which had ballooned to $1.32 trillion after the listing, has retreated to about $850 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The bulk of his wealth now sits in SpaceX equity, but his 42% stake remains locked until June 2027, insulating him from the worst of the selling pressure at least until then.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
That selling pressure, however, is intensifying from another direction. Short interest has ballooned from an estimated 5–7% of the free float three weeks ago to 29% today, representing roughly 185 million shares short and a notional value of about $25 billion. Data from Ortex shows that half of the company’s tradable equity is now out on loan, almost exclusively used for bearish bets. The shorts have racked up cumulative paper gains of $8.7 billion since the IPO, and they show no sign of covering.
The next major headwind for the stock, and a potential gift to the short side, is the impending expiration of lock-up agreements. Around the time of the first quarterly earnings report as a listed company—expected in early August, though SpaceX has yet to confirm a date—employees and early investors will be permitted to sell roughly 911.5 million shares worth about $123 billion at current prices. That volume dwarfs the entire public float, estimated at $86 billion. KeyBanc Capital Markets projects that roughly 11% of all outstanding shares could become tradable around the second-quarter report, with additional tranches of about 4% each following after 70 days post-IPO, tied to milestones and third-quarter results. By early December, as much as 40% of the equity could be freely traded, while the remaining 60% stays locked through mid-2027.
Despite the relentless bearish pressure, Wall Street’s official view remains bullish. Of the 31 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it a “Buy,” with a consensus price target of $242. Deutsche Bank initiated coverage with a $255 target, while JPMorgan’s Seth Seifman has struck a more cautious note, advising clients to wait on the sidelines given the technical setbacks. Not every big money manager is running for cover: Cathie Wood bought roughly 123,000 SpaceX shares on July 15, a $17 million bet that the pullback is overdone.
The fundamentals themselves offer little immediate comfort. SpaceX booked revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025, up 33% year-on-year, but posted a net loss of $4.9 billion. The first quarter of 2026 alone added another $4.3 billion in red ink, according to the IPO prospectus. With a relative strength index of 35 suggesting oversold conditions, a bounce is possible, but the combination of a sputtering Starship program and a wave of unlocked shares threatens to keep the stock grounded in the weeks ahead.
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