Starship Milestone Fails to Ignite SpaceX as MoffettNathanson Initiates With $131 Price Target
Published on 07/12/2026 at 13:26 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The gap between SpaceX’s engineering achievements and its stock market performance has rarely been wider. Even as the company successfully fired up a next-generation Starship booster, a fresh sell-side voice on Wall Street slapped a target nearly 30% below current levels, underscoring the skepticism that has dogged the stock since its Nasdaq debut.
MoffettNathanson launched coverage on July 10 with a "Neutral" rating and a $131 price target, arguing that SpaceX trades at an eye-watering 101 times annual revenue and 327 times enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA. With a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026 and a market capitalization approaching $1.9 trillion, analyst Zhu said the valuation is tough to justify from a profit standpoint — a view CNBC highlighted that same week as the stock slipped below its IPO price.
That caution stands in stark contrast to the bulls. Deutsche Bank rates the shares a "Buy" with a $255 target, Wells Fargo an "Overweight" at $230, and Morgan Stanley sees $300. Goldman Sachs is at $205, while Raymond James has set a stunning $800 price objective. The consensus 12-month target sits at $236.45, more than 60% above the current price.
Booster 20 Lights Up, but the Stock Fizzles
On the very day MoffettNathanson threw cold water on the stock, SpaceX completed a static-fire test of its Super Heavy Booster 20 in Starbase, Texas. The booster — only the second "Version 3" unit to reach the launch pad — carries 33 Raptor 3 engines and will pair with Ship 40 for the 13th Starship flight. The test involved fueling the pad tanks and the rocket itself after a beach closure at Boca Chica around 8 a.m. ET. A launch could come as soon as the coming week.
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Yet the market's reaction was muted at best. SpaceX shares fell 4.51% on the session to $145.30, a decline of $6.86, pushing the stock dangerously close to its 52-week low of $145.07. The closing price at the end of the first full week as an index member — which saw a range between $145.07 and $150.57 — was $145.93, still barely above the July 10 intraday trough.
Nasdaq-100 Tailwind Fades
The Starship milestone came just days after SpaceX entered the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. Index funds tracking the QQQ and similar products had begun buying after the close on July 6, with an estimated $4.3 billion flowing into the stock. On inclusion day, shares jumped roughly 1% to $158.77. But that pop proved short-lived, as the move had been widely anticipated. No existing company was removed to make room — the index temporarily expanded beyond 100 members under 2026 rules.
The swift reversal has reignited concern about supply overload. When the first lock-up period expires on August 6, approximately 20% of insider shares will become eligible for sale. That same day, SpaceX will report its first quarterly earnings as a public company, giving investors their first detailed look at the margins of the Starship program and the economics of Starlink's "Direct to Cell" satellites.
Operational Firepower Meets Valuation Headwinds
While the stock flirts with its lows, SpaceX continues to rack up technical achievements. On July 10 and 11, a Falcon 9 rocket deployed 29 Starlink satellites, with the first-stage booster B1071 completing its 35th flight — just one shy of the company's reusability record of 36 missions. Another Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral is slated for July 14, again carrying 29 Starlink payloads.
Starlink remains the financial backbone, contributing roughly 69% of quarterly revenue. But management is actively diversifying. SpaceX has launched "Grok 4.5," completed a $60 billion acquisition of Cursor to enter enterprise artificial intelligence, and is exploring orbital data centers that would leverage Starlink connectivity for AI infrastructure. The company is also in talks with Charter Communications and other telecom carriers about integrating Starlink into mobile networks.
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The dual narrative — record-breaking launch cadence and Starship progress on one side, a $4.28 billion quarterly loss and a sky-high valuation multiple on the other — leaves investors parsing two very different messages. Technical analysts are watching the $145 support level closely. A sustained break below that line could accelerate the slide toward the IPO price of $135. On the upside, $150 has become a psychological resistance that buyers must retake to restore confidence.
All eyes now turn to August 6, when the earnings report and the lock-up cliff will test whether SpaceX's long-term story can overcome the near-term gravity of its own valuation.
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