Telekom's Upgraded Outlook Gets Sidelined as Stock Nears Year Low
21.06.2026 - 11:15:41 | boerse-global.de
Deutsche Telekom is delivering on nearly every front – record operating profits, a labour truce, aggressive share buybacks, and fresh regulatory tailwinds – yet the stock continues to slide. The shares closed Friday at €26.72, down roughly 5.7% on the week and more than 12% year-to-date. That leaves them just 2.81% above the 52-week trough of €25.99, while the gap to February’s high has widened to about 22%.
The disconnect between operational strength and market sentiment is stark. In the first quarter, the Bonn-based group posted organic revenue growth of 4.7% to €29.9 billion, with adjusted EBITDA AL climbing 7.5% to €11.5 billion. Free cash flow AL came in at €5.7 billion. Those numbers prompted management to raise the full-year forecast: it now expects adjusted EBITDA of around €47.5 billion and free cash flow exceeding €19.8 billion, while the adjusted earnings per share target remains at €2.20.
The share buyback programme, meanwhile, is running at full throttle. The total 2026 envelope is up to €2 billion, with the current tranche – capped at €550 million – due to be completed by the end of June. During the first weeks of June, the company repurchased shares at an average price of €28.49, roughly 6% above the current market level. Yet even that buying pressure has failed to stem the decline.
On the labour front, the group sealed a new collective wage agreement with the ver.di union covering around 60,000 employees. The deal runs through to the end of 2028 and rules out compulsory redundancies for that period, giving investors a rare dose of long-term planning certainty.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
Policy makers have also lent a hand. On 8 June, the federal government, states, municipalities and the telecom industry signed a memorandum of understanding titled “Bestes Netz für Deutschland”, aiming to connect some 5.6 million new fibre households in 2026 alone. Separately, the cabinet approved an amendment to the Telecommunications Act that includes a so-called “right to full build-out” – once fibre reaches a building, providers can also take over the internal wiring, potentially accelerating deployment in multi-dwelling units and bringing forward revenue from fibre sales.
Strategic moves extend beyond regulation. In early June, Deutsche Telekom joined forces with Palo Alto Networks to launch a new AI-driven security platform aimed at European customers in regulated sectors. The system will be rolled out in the third quarter of 2026, with Telekom controlling the encryption.
Despite the barrage of positive catalysts, the market remains unconvinced. Heavy volume on Friday – around 11 million shares changing hands – indicated persistent selling pressure. Investors appear more concerned about the high capital outlay required for fibre expansion and still-tepid customer demand than about the longer-term opportunities. Technically, the stock is trading decisively below its 200-day moving average, and the relative strength index of 33.3 is nearing oversold territory.
Deutsche Telekom at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next major test comes on 6 August, when Deutsche Telekom reports second-quarter figures. The market will scrutinise free cash flow trends, network investment levels, and early signs of whether the new fibre-friendly rules are translating into stronger take-up. A separate investor day on 5 October, focused on artificial intelligence use cases and their financial impact, will offer a further opportunity for management to bridge the widening gap between strong fundamentals and a flagging share price.
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