Tender Tally Tells a Different Tale: Commerzbank Pushes Back on UniCredit's Takeover Claims
26.06.2026 - 09:22:36 | boerse-global.de
The battle for Commerzbank has entered a new phase of information warfare, with the German lender’s management deploying granular data to challenge the narrative coming out of Milan. UniCredit had pointed to a 12.51% acceptance rate as evidence of broad shareholder support, but Frankfurt is now unpicking those figures with surgical precision.
Behind that headline number lies a far less encouraging picture for Andrea Orcel. According to Commerzbank’s analysis, 11.17 percentage points of the tendered shares came from banks — transactions the management dismisses as technical in nature, likely tied to derivatives and hedging strategies orchestrated by UniCredit itself. True independent institutional investors accounted for just 1.29 percentage points. Retail participation was negligible at 0.05 percentage points.
Chief executive Bettina Orlopp was blunt in her assessment: the core shareholder base had remained “largely unchanged.” The message is clear — UniCredit has yet to win over the investors that matter most.
Political roadblocks further complicate the Italian bank’s ambitions. The German government still holds roughly 12% of Commerzbank and has given no indication it intends to sell. That stake alone is enough to block any attempt at a squeeze-out, which requires 90% control, and a delisting against Berlin’s wishes looks virtually impossible. The takeover fight is increasingly settling into a political and regulatory stalemate.
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Across the Alps, UniCredit is also having to deal with a distraction on home turf. France’s Crédit Agricole has built its stake in Banco BPM to nearly 30%, a defensive move that forces Orcel’s bank to keep one eye on the Italian market even as it presses its German offensive.
The offer period has now been extended to July 3, a move analysts interpret as an admission of unexpectedly strong resistance. Without a sweetened bid, the current terms look unlikely to generate the momentum UniCredit needs.
At the trading desk, the verbal sparring has left little mark on the stock. Commerzbank shares changed hands at €37.31 recently, a marginal 0.45% decline from the prior session. That compares with a close of €37.48 on Thursday and sits just under 4% below the 52-week high of €38.85 reached on June 19. The relative strength index of 53.8 suggests no overheating or weakness, while the 50-day moving average remains comfortably underneath. Over the past twelve months, the stock has climbed roughly 38%, with the long-term uptrend firmly intact.
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Investors appear to be pricing in a dual scenario: the premium embedded in a potential takeover alongside the very real possibility that Commerzbank remains independent. Orlopp is pushing ahead with the “Momentum 2030” strategy, targeting a significant lift in return on equity and profit, while betting on shareholder loyalty to hold the line.
The July 3 deadline now looms as the next critical juncture. Orcel needs to show he can break the impasse, but with Berlin unmoved and independent investors barely on board, the path forward looks narrow. For now, Frankfurt has the numbers — and the narrative — on its side.
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