Tesla Faces a Reckoning on Safety Data as Delivery Outlook Brightens
Published on 06/17/2026 at 16:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The tug of war over Tesla’s identity has rarely been sharper. On one side, Goldman Sachs has just cranked up its delivery forecast for the second quarter, pointing to blistering demand in Europe and steady growth in China. On the other, two US senators are demanding a formal probe into the safety statistics underpinning the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system — and the clock is ticking until 7 July.
At the heart of the dispute lies a methodological fault line that could rattle Tesla’s most cherished marketing claim: that its autonomous driving technology is far safer than a human driver. Senators Edward Markey and Richard Blumenthal wrote to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on 16 June, alleging that Tesla cherry-picks data to make FSD look safer than it really is. The automaker counts an accident as involving Autopilot or FSD only if it occurs within five seconds of the system being disengaged. The NHTSA standard is 30 seconds. That difference, the senators argue, systematically undercounts incidents and inflates the safety narrative.
The NHTSA now has until 7 July to respond. A negative finding could force Tesla to overhaul how it markets FSD — and, by extension, how investors value the stock. The shares last changed hands at €348.70, hovering just above their 50-day moving average. The 200-day average of €358.45 sits about 2.7% higher, the relative-strength index at 48,1 signalling neutral momentum. The 52-week high of €424,10 remains a distant memory.
Despite the regulatory headwind, the operational picture is brightening. Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney raised his Q2 delivery estimate to 420,000 vehicles from 405,000, well above the consensus of roughly 400,000 units. The upgrade is fuelled by a surge in European registrations, which were up 85-90% year-on-year through May. China is also humming along, with high single-digit growth. Those gains are offsetting a marked slowdown in the US, where deliveries are expected to fall by a mid-teens percentage.
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The upbeat delivery outlook, however, has done little to lift the stock. Goldman maintains a Neutral rating and a $375 price target. The market cap sits at around €1.3 trillion — a hefty multiple that, in the view of some institutional investors, requires proof that FSD is both safe and commercially viable.
That skepticism extends beyond regulators. David Giroux, a portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, has quietly replaced Tesla with Broadcom in his version of the “Magnificent Seven,” citing the valuation. Meanwhile, SpaceX — Elon Musk’s other high-profile venture — has reached a market capitalisation of roughly $2.85 trillion, more than double Tesla’s worth. Some analysts have begun floating new acronyms like “MANGOS” that include SpaceX and exclude Tesla altogether.
The technical picture offers little direction. The stock is roughly flat on the year, down about 7% since January, although it has rallied 26.6% over the past twelve months. The RSI’s neutral reading of 48.1 reflects a market waiting for a catalyst. The next major event is the official Q2 delivery report, which Goldman now expects to beat consensus.
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But the truly existential catalyst is the NHTSA response due on 7 July. If the agency sides with the senators and orders a deeper investigation, Tesla’s safety claims — and its valuation — will face a stress test unlike any other. The thousands of vehicles sold each month may keep the factory lights on, but the real prize for a €1.3 trillion automaker is convincing the world that its software is safe enough to trust. That decision no longer rests with Elon Musk. It rests with the regulators.
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