Tesla’s European Footprint Widens as Safety Doubts and Merger Narrative Shape the Stock’s Next Move

Tesla’s gradual conquest of Europe’s autonomous driving landscape is picking up speed, but a freshly aired credibility gap threatens to overshadow the regulatory wins. The company’s stock closed Friday at €373.70, roughly 10% below its 52-week high, yet the monthly sheet shows a 17% advance — a reminder of the volatility that defines this name.

Estonia became the third European country to green-light Full Self-Driving (Supervised) on May 29, following the Netherlands in April and Lithuania in May. The Estonian transport authority adopted the type approval already granted by the Dutch RDW, using a mechanism allowed under EU Regulation 2018/858. Initially, only vehicles on the newer Hardware-4 platform receive the over?the?air update; older Hardware?3 cars are slated for a stripped-down version called “FSD v14 Lite” this summer. The real prize — pan?EU approval via the TCMV technical committee — could come in July or October, with France and Germany holding fire until that central process moves forward.

Yet the celebratory tone is clashing with a Reuters investigation that picks apart Tesla’s cherished safety statistics. The core flaw: Tesla counts only accidents that trigger an airbag deployment, then compares that number to a nationwide US crash rate that includes far milder incidents where vehicles are simply towed away. The mismatch, say researchers, inflates Tesla’s claimed safety level by a factor of three. Nine former data labelers, a former autonomous?driving engineer, and eleven traffic?safety researchers contributed to the findings. Even the labelers who train Tesla’s AI system don’t trust it enough to let it drive them. The European Transport Safety Council has flagged concerns about driver over?reliance on a system that still requires constant supervision.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tesla?

Meanwhile, the subscription engine is humming. Tesla now reports around 1.28 million active FSD subscriptions, a 51% jump year?on?year. To keep the momentum going, the company is hosting “Intro to Full Self?Driving” events this month in Palo Alto, San Jose, and San Francisco. On the hardware side, “Inventory Showcase Days” are pushing available configurations at a time when delivery expectations have been trimmed — analysts see roughly 1.69 million vehicles delivered in 2026, well below earlier targets.

The technical picture adds another layer of tension. Tesla has recovered from its April lows and cleared its long?term moving averages, but a thick resistance band between €383 and €386 now looms. A clean break above €389 would open the door to a test of the 52?week peak at €416.90. Failure to breach could send the stock back to support at €358, and a breakdown there might trigger a slide toward €325. The RSI at 33.6 hints at mild oversold conditions, though not enough to call a clear turning point.

Elon Musk’s empire?building narrative is injecting fresh fantasy into the stock. Speculation is thickening that Tesla and SpaceX could be drawn closer together — possibly ahead of a SpaceX initial public offering. The “Terafab” chip factory is already a joint project designed to secure semiconductor supply for both companies, and Tesla’s earlier holdings in Musk’s AI venture xAI are rumoured to have been converted into SpaceX equity. For institutional investors, the story is shifting: Tesla is no longer merely a carmaker but the hub of a cross?industry hardware and AI ecosystem.

The next operational milestone is the expansion of robotaxi operations without safety drivers. Test runs are under way in Dallas and Houston, with more cities planned before year?end. A successful scaling proof could redefine the valuation debate. Until then, the stock remains a high?volatility bet on Musk’s vision — a vision that now has to juggle European regulatory progress, a safety?data credibility crisis, and the allure of a SpaceX tie?up.

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