Tesla’s Two-Speed Problem: Record Deliveries Can’t Mask a Robotaxi Plateau and a Margin Squeeze
Published on 07/29/2026 at 01:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Tesla shipped more vehicles in the second quarter than at any point in its history, yet the stock has shed roughly a quarter of its value over the past month. The disconnect between operational milestones and financial reality has rarely been starker, and the numbers behind the headlines reveal a company wrestling with two distinct but equally troubling headwinds: a profit engine that is sputtering and a robotaxi narrative that has stopped accelerating.
The shares, which closed at €269.55 on the latest trading day, have fallen 25.26% over the past 30 days. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 26.7, a reading that typically flags a technically oversold stock and, in the eyes of some analysts, sets the stage for a rebound toward the consensus price target of €352.62 — implying upside of roughly 31%. But the technical picture alone does little to address the fundamental questions piling up.
Record Output, Shrinking Margins
Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, a 25% jump from a year earlier. Revenue climbed 26% to $28.24 billion, topping analyst estimates. Yet adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 missed the $0.54 consensus by nearly 38%, while operating profit plunged 57% to just $398 million. The operating margin collapsed to 1.4%, a figure that would alarm investors in any automaker and is particularly jarring for a company that once commanded automotive margins above 20%.
The deterioration runs deeper than the headline numbers. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in two years, clocking in at minus $1.09 billion as capital expenditure doubled to $5.79 billion. Tesla plans to spend more than $25 billion on capex in full-year 2026, financed in part by as much as $30 billion in new debt. Net income of $1.1 billion — down 5% year-on-year — was flattered by an unrealized mark-to-market gain of roughly $1 billion from Tesla’s stake in SpaceX. Strip that out, and the underlying profit picture would have looked considerably weaker. In the core automotive segment, gross margin excluding regulatory credits slid to 16.3% from 19.2% a year ago.
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Robotaxi Miles: The Plateau That Undermines the Thesis
While the margin compression is a near-term earnings worry, the bigger strategic concern centers on the robotaxi business — the very venture that underpins much of Tesla’s lofty valuation. On the surface, progress looks steady. Tesla expanded its paid robotaxi service to Orlando and Tampa in July, bringing the total to seven U.S. markets. The company’s AI vice president touted more than 380,000 miles driven without a safety driver. Cumulative paid robotaxi miles crossed 2.4 million.
But the quarterly breakdown tells a different story. In the second quarter, Tesla added roughly 900,000 paid miles — exactly the same number it added in the first quarter. Within the quarter, the pace was even more concerning: a strong April pushed the figure higher, but growth then slowed to a run rate of about 600,000 miles per quarter. That is not exponential scaling. It is a plateau, and it sits awkwardly alongside a valuation that still prices in hockey-stick growth.
Tesla has also missed its own expansion targets. In July 2025, Elon Musk promised that the company could reach half the U.S. population by the end of that year, pending regulatory approval. That deadline has clearly been missed. Musk now cites rigorous safety testing as the binding constraint, a cautious tone that contrasts sharply with his earlier bravado.
Adding to the skepticism, the much-cited cumulative mile curve includes San Francisco’s taxi service, where human drivers still handle the vast majority of trips. Truly driverless rides remain a small minority. Meanwhile, rival Waymo is logging roughly 4 million autonomous miles per week — a pace that dwarfs Tesla’s entire cumulative effort.
Competitive Pressure and Insider Signals
The competitive landscape is not limited to robotaxis. BYD shipped 557,090 battery-electric vehicles in the second quarter, more than 160,000 ahead of Tesla’s roughly 396,500 pure BEV sales, reclaiming the global lead in all-electric deliveries. Investor Bill Ackman has publicly stated a preference for Uber over Tesla in the autonomous-vehicle space, citing Waymo’s lead.
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Analyst reactions have been split. Deutsche Bank cut its price target from $465 to $420, while Morningstar held its fair-value estimate at $450 and called the stock “very attractive” after the sell-off, pointing to roughly 46% upside. The broader analyst consensus leans toward “hold,” with an average target around $402. On the institutional side, Excelsior Advisor Network boosted its Tesla position by more than 400% in the first quarter, even as insiders sold shares worth several hundred thousand dollars.
Musk’s Personal Headwinds Add to the Noise
Elon Musk’s personal fortune has shrunk by hundreds of billions of dollars in recent weeks, driven largely by a sharp decline in SpaceX’s valuation after a failed Starship test flight. Since Tesla holds a direct stake in SpaceX, the markdown flows through to Tesla’s own balance sheet and adds another layer of uncertainty for shareholders already grappling with margin erosion and a robotaxi story that has lost its momentum.
There are bright spots. Full-self-driving subscriptions jumped 56% to 1.48 million, and the robotaxi service now operates in seven metro regions. But those data points have not been enough to reverse the narrative shift. The robotaxi thesis is not dead — the technology and the long-term vision around the Cybercab and the Optimus humanoid robot remain intact. What has changed is the market’s patience. Until Tesla can demonstrate that paid robotaxi miles are actually accelerating rather than merely accumulating on a cumulative chart, the burden of proof rests squarely with the bulls.
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