Tesla Stock: The $1.8 Trillion SpaceX Question and the 20-Car Robotaxi Fleet
16.06.2026 - 03:11:49 | boerse-global.de
The most provocative call on Tesla right now has nothing to do with electric vehicles or driverless technology. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives puts the probability of a Tesla-SpaceX merger at 80% within the next twelve months. A combined entity, he argues, would hand Elon Musk control of an integrated AI ecosystem — the "holy grail" of his corporate empire. Ives concedes that SpaceX has near-term priorities around launches and Starlink, but he would be "shocked" if no deal materialises by mid-2027.
Reality on the ground, however, tells a far more incremental story. Tesla has expanded its fully unsupervised robotaxi service across the entire Austin metropolitan area — more than double its previous operating zone — with Dallas and Houston added in April. Yet the fleet behind those headlines numbers roughly 20 vehicles in Austin alone. Compare that with Waymo, which runs over 700 cars in San Francisco. The gap between ambition and execution remains wide.
Regulatory groundwork is advancing methodically nonetheless. On June 5, 2026, Tesla Robotaxi LLC filed an application with the Nevada Transportation Authority for an autonomous vehicle network permit covering Clark County, including Harry Reid International Airport and Henderson Executive Airport. The requested capacity: up to 5,000 vehicles in the first year post-approval. That is not pilot-program scale. Five thousand cars in a single state would represent a step change from current operations. The filing includes Tesla’s self-certification that its autonomous driving system meets Nevada’s Level 4 requirements.
The vehicle designed to fill those networks is already rolling off the line. Tesla manufactures the Cybercab at Giga Texas, as Elon Musk confirmed during the Q1 2026 earnings call. The two-seater lacks a steering wheel and pedals, built as the physical foundation of a long-term network economy. Musk tempered near-term enthusiasm: initial Cybercab and Semi production will be very slow before ramping exponentially toward year-end. Crucially, the company does not expect meaningful robotaxi revenue before 2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tesla?
In the meantime, Tesla’s traditional automotive business continues to generate mixed signals. First-quarter 2026 production exceeded 408,000 vehicles, while deliveries came in at roughly 358,000 — a surplus of about 50,000 units that keeps the legacy car business under margin pressure. Free cash flow turned negative as Tesla accelerates capital spending toward an annual target of $25 billion, mostly for AI compute capacity and robotaxi infrastructure.
Analysts see some near-term relief. GLJ Research forecasts Q2 deliveries of around 426,000, a 19% sequential increase, attributing the jump to destocking of inventory that built up in Q1. Yet GLJ maintains a "Sell" rating, citing no genuine demand recovery. That caution mirrors the stock’s recent performance: Tesla trades at €354.40, down roughly 5.2% year to date and 16.4% below its 52-week high of €424.10. The consensus analyst target sits at €362.19 — a paper-thin 2.2% upside.
Twenty-seven analysts collectively rate the stock a "Hold." J.P. Morgan has reoriented its valuation framework away from the auto manufacturer toward the autonomous platform, projecting revenue growth from roughly $95 billion in 2025 to $203 billion by 2030, with rising contributions from robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot. The market capitalisation stands at approximately €1.32 trillion.
The merger narrative adds another layer to the valuation debate — and introduces serious complications. SpaceX completed its IPO at $135 per share, implying a market capitalisation of roughly $1.8 trillion, about 20% above Tesla’s current enterprise value. That gap matters because any stock-for-stock combination would require an exchange ratio that existing SpaceX shareholders are unlikely to accept below the IPO price. Professor Ann Lipton of the University of Colorado flags the dilution issue directly: Tesla equity holders would see their proportional stake shrink in a combined company.
Veteran investor Steven Eisman goes further, arguing that a merger offers little obvious benefit for SpaceX investors. Tesla operates in a capital-intensive, fiercely competitive EV market — not an obvious value-add for a space and broadband giant. The operational ties are already deep: Tesla invested $2.0 billion in xAI in January, and when SpaceX later acquired xAI in an all-stock transaction valued at around $250 billion, Tesla’s stake converted into roughly 19 million SpaceX shares. SpaceX has also purchased $697 million in Tesla Megapacks and $131 million in Cybertrucks. The S-1 prospectus mentions Tesla 87 times. Musk serves as CEO and board member of both companies.
Tesla at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Morningstar notes that the completed SpaceX IPO now provides a market price — an essential reference point for determining fair value in any potential deal. Musk-led companies move fast. A merger before next summer would not be an outlier in his playbook.
For now, the stock remains caught between two competing forces: the speculative appeal of a $1.8 trillion AI-robotaxi-SpaceX conglomerate, and the operational reality of a 20-car robotaxi fleet with no material revenue before 2027. The RSI sits at 50.5 — almost clinically neutral. With annualised volatility of 45.6% and a price that has barely moved in 30 days, the market is pricing exactly that uncertainty: the opportunity is acknowledged; the reward awaits proof of execution.
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