The $50 Billion Order Book That Can't Calm Nebius's Bears
Published on 07/27/2026 at 21:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nebius Group sits in an unusual spot. The company has Nvidia as a 9.3 percent shareholder, a $27 billion contract with Meta Platforms, a $17.4 billion deal with Microsoft, and an order backlog approaching $50 billion. Yet its stock trades at €164.90 — a staggering 36.82 percent below the year's high and roughly 17 percent beneath its 50-day moving average of €198.56.
The disconnect between commercial momentum and market sentiment has turned Nebius into one of the most polarizing names in the AI infrastructure space. The bulls point to a revenue pipeline that dwarfs current sales. The bears counter with a capital expenditure plan that could swallow it all.
The Funding Tightrope
Nebius's investment roadmap calls for $20 billion to $25 billion in spending. That figure sits uncomfortably next to first-quarter 2026 revenue of just $399 million — though that number did represent a 684 percent year-over-year surge. Adjusted EBITDA reached $129.5 million in the same period, marking a turn toward profitability.
The central tension is straightforward: building AI infrastructure at this scale demands continuous billions for graphics chips, data centers, networking gear, and power. That reality can delay profitability and force future capital raises. Analyst notes return to this theme repeatedly, and it explains why the stock shed 21.85 percent in a single 30-day window even as the order book expanded.
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Management is trying to address the funding gap without further diluting shareholders. Nebius secured a secured credit facility worth roughly $775 million to expand its AI cloud platform. Unlike the earlier convertible bond, this debt is backed by specific assets — a shift in financing strategy away from dilutive instruments toward secured borrowing. The sum, however, covers only a fraction of what the company will need long-term if its growth targets hold.
A Market Split in Two
The most telling metric at Nebius isn't the revenue growth or the backlog. It's the short interest. Roughly 61 million shares are sold short, representing about 24 percent of the float — among the highest levels for any large AI infrastructure name. That position has held despite Nvidia's disclosed stake and despite the Meta and Microsoft contracts.
The implication is clear: the market has fractured into two camps that no longer argue about operations. They argue about whether capital-intensive growth of this magnitude can ever translate into sustainable margins before the money runs out.
Recent price action reflects genuine indecision rather than panic or euphoria. The stock sits well below its short-term average but remains comfortably above its 200-day moving average of €121.55. The relative strength index of 41.7 signals neither oversold nor overbought conditions. The annualized 30-day volatility stands at 119.11 percent — far beyond what normal stocks exhibit.
The Nvidia Catalyst That Faded
Nvidia's Schedule 13G filing confirmed a passive 9.3 percent stake in Nebius, stemming from a previously announced $2 billion strategic investment. The chip giant cited confidence in Nebius's business model and technical depth across the AI technology stack. The partnership has tangible substance: Nebius can deploy more than 5 gigawatts of Nvidia systems through 2030.
The stock jumped 18.78 percent on July 21 following the disclosure, accompanied by upgrades from Freedom Capital and Northland Securities. Yet the rally proved temporary. The underlying skepticism reasserted itself within days, suggesting that even a multibillion-dollar vote of confidence from the world's most important AI chipmaker isn't enough to sway a deeply divided market.
Two Scenarios for the Next Quarter
The bull case rests on backlog conversion. Nebius's order book of nearly $50 billion is anchored by the $27 billion Meta agreement and the $17.4 billion Microsoft contract. If the second-quarter report confirms the trend of converting that backlog into recognized revenue and validates the annual guidance, the current level — 32.95 percent above the 200-day average but far from the record high — could look like an entry point rather than a warning.
The bear case focuses on the gap between today's spending and tomorrow's revenue. DA Davidson downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral upon initiating coverage in May, keeping a $250 price target. The rationale was valuation, not fundamentals — Nebius had simply become "rightfully a staple of the AI trade," in the analysts' words. That cautious stance has held through the summer.
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Insider transactions offer little signal either way. On July 1, a Nebius manager sold 46,627 Class A shares at $235.45 each, exclusively to cover tax withholdings on restricted stock units. Three filings recorded sales of 97,435 shares total at the same price and date, each flagged as tax-related rather than discretionary selling.
What Breaks the Impasse
The next concrete catalyst is the second-quarter earnings report for fiscal 2026, expected in late July. Nebius has not officially confirmed the date. Until then, the stock remains caught between a story that keeps getting stronger and a chart that keeps getting weaker.
If backlog conversion stays on track and no new capex escalation emerges, stabilization above the 200-day average of €121.55 remains the more probable path, with recovery potential toward the 50-day level of €198.56. If the report shows slower conversion or another capex increase without matching revenue guidance, pressure toward lower support zones becomes a real risk. A test of the 52-week low of €43.80, however, looks unlikely from current levels.
Nebius has the contracts, the hardware access, and a strategically central chip supplier as a shareholder. What it still lacks is a way to convince the more skeptical half of the market that this capital intensity eventually produces a viable business. Until that happens, the stock may behave less like an infrastructure bet and more like a referendum on investor confidence in the entire AI buildout.
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