The AI Cloud Paradox: Nebius Has Nvidia’s Blessing and Google’s Business, but the Market Is Looking the Other Way
Published on 07/24/2026 at 20:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell two very different stories about Nebius right now, and investors are struggling to decide which one to believe.
On one hand, the AI cloud infrastructure company just completed a successful test of its first Vera Rubin NVL72 rack in Finland, has Nvidia as a 9.3% shareholder, and counts Google among its customers for rented computing capacity. On the other, its stock shed 7.93% in a single session to €179.06, extending a slide that has left it 31.39% below its 52-week high of €261.00.
The trigger for Friday’s sell-off wasn’t anything Nebius did. It was the fallout from Alphabet and Tesla’s quarterly reports, which sent shockwaves through the entire technology sector. Alphabet posted a 24% revenue increase and 82% growth at Google Cloud, but spooked investors by raising its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to between $195 billion and $205 billion — up from a prior range of $180 billion to $190 billion. The prospect of a first-ever negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion sent Alphabet shares down more than 7%, while Tesla lost roughly 15% after its own spending warnings. The so-called “Magnificent Seven” collectively shed around $797 billion in market value in a single trading day.
For Nebius, whose entire business model depends on massive infrastructure spending by hyperscalers, the sentiment shift acted as an accelerant. The stock fell 6.40% to €182.04 on the day before recovering slightly, but the damage to investor confidence may take longer to repair.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
A Structural Advantage That Got Drowned Out
Buried beneath the market noise was a detail that speaks to Nebius’s growing strategic importance. Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian confirmed during Alphabet’s earnings call that the company is renting external computing capacity from both CoreWeave and Nebius because its own internal demand exceeds supply. That admission places Nebius squarely inside the supply chains of the world’s largest cloud operators — a structural tailwind that the current sell-off has completely ignored.
The company’s first-quarter results reinforce the growth narrative. Revenue hit $399 million, a 684% increase year-over-year, while core AI revenue surged 841%. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $129.5 million, representing a 32% margin. Net losses widened by roughly a fifth to $100.3 million, but Nebius sits on $9.3 billion in cash — enough to fund a portion of the $20 billion to $25 billion in planned investments this year.
The backbone of that expansion is a five-year contract with Meta worth $27 billion, of which $12 billion is firmly committed and another $15 billion is optional. For the full year 2026, management has guided for revenue between $3 billion and $3.4 billion.
The Bull Case: Nvidia’s Bet and Institutional Confidence
Nvidia’s 9.3% stake, disclosed in an SEC filing earlier this week, sent the stock surging 18.78% on Wednesday. The chip giant’s endorsement carries weight in a market where access to high-performance computing capacity remains scarce. The successful test of the Vera Rubin NVL72 rack in Finland demonstrates that Nebius can compete technically in a segment where global supply is tight.
Institutional investors are taking note. Siren L.L.C. increased its position by 49.1% this year, while Cloverfields Capital initiated a new stake in the first quarter. If management confirms the full-year guidance when it reports quarterly results on July 29 — or on August 6, depending on which source you follow — the stock could find a floor.
The Bear Case: Insider Selling and Persistent Losses
The counter-narrative is harder to ignore. Nebius reported a loss per share of $0.23 in the first quarter, and the heavy investment in AI data centers has yet to translate into operating profitability.
More troubling is the insider activity. Over the past 90 days, managers and directors sold 668,405 shares worth $140.4 million. Chief Technology Officer Danila Shtan sold 16,937 shares at $235.45 each in early July, while Andrey Korolenko offloaded 33,871 shares at the same price. While insider sales don’t necessarily signal trouble, they add to the caution in an already nervous market.
Technically, the stock remains 47.66% above its 200-day moving average of €121.27 — a gap that leaves room for further corrections if the quarterly numbers disappoint. The annualized 30-day volatility of 113.60% underscores just how violent price swings can be in this name.
Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Financing Squeeze That Hangs Over the Sector
The broader concern isn’t unique to Nebius. Financing costs for AI infrastructure are rising across the industry. Meta recently had to offer yields above 7% to fund a data center in El Paso, while S&P downgraded Oracle’s debt to BBB-. The credit markets are watching the sector’s spending discipline more closely than ever, and any sign of fatigue could ripple through names like Nebius that depend on continued capital inflows.
Analyst sentiment remains cautiously bullish. Northland rates the stock “Outperform” with a $410 price target, while Bank of America sees a target of $280. The consensus sits at “Moderate Buy.” But with the RSI at 46.6 — neither oversold nor overbought — the market is genuinely undecided about which direction the stock will take.
The Next Catalyst
The quarterly report will settle the debate, at least temporarily. If the Finnish facilities are operating more efficiently than expected, a recovery toward the 50-day moving average of €199.03 is plausible. If the “AI spending fatigue” that hit other tech names proves contagious, the 100-day moving average at €159.28 becomes the next line of defense.
Either way, the July 29 earnings call — or August 6, depending on the calendar — will determine whether Nebius’s operational momentum can override the macro headwinds that have suddenly made AI infrastructure one of the most contested trades in the market.
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