Thyssenkrupp’s Double Trigger: EU Steel Tariffs and HKM Exit Set Stage for June

A powerful May rally has pushed Thyssenkrupp’s stock 23% higher over the past 30 days, closing at €11.72 on Friday — well above its 200-day moving average. Yet it is the confluence of two structural catalysts this month that could determine whether the momentum holds or fades.

Brussels Lays Down the Steel

The European Parliament has already approved a new regulation aimed at curbing global overcapacity in the bloc’s steel market. Formal ratification by the Council is expected before the end of June — a procedural step after the trilogue process concluded. From July 1, 2026, import quotas will shrink to 18.3 million tonnes annually, a 47% reduction from 2024 levels. Volumes exceeding that limit will face a 50% duty, double the current 25%. For Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe, the measure provides structural relief: cheap overseas imports become costlier, giving domestic producers more pricing power.

One segment remains an exception. Electrical steel is not yet subject to the quota cuts. Thyssenkrupp has pushed the European Commission to open a separate safeguard investigation — which it has now done. The company’s Electrical Steel unit is one of just two remaining European producers of grain-oriented electrical steel, used in transformers and wind turbines. Import volumes into the EU have tripled since 2022, the group said.

HKM Sale Finally Closes

On Monday, June 1, Thyssenkrupp Steel completes the sale of its stake in Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesheim (HKM) to Salzgitter, a deal announced in February. Salzgitter will operate the plant on a smaller scale under sole ownership, while slab supplies to Thyssenkrupp Steel are guaranteed through 2028. The transaction was subject to approval from relevant bodies, a positive continuation opinion, and Vallourec’s consent to the sale. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?

The stock’s reaction on Monday will tell the market whether the HKM disentanglement is seen as a drag or as a clarity-inducing step. The relative strength index stands at 62 — elevated but not yet overbought.

Automotive Restructuring Continues Stateside

Parallel to the steel-side progress, Thyssenkrupp’s auto-supply division is pressing ahead with its own overhaul. Thyssenkrupp Presta North America will close its Terre Haute, Indiana, facility by March 31, 2027, affecting around 230 employees. Chassis operations will be consolidated at the Hamilton, Ohio, site. North America remains a key market for the division, which generated roughly €2.1 billion in annual sales. The group has already approved the elimination of about 1,800 positions to cut costs by more than €150 million, with the aim of making the automotive unit capital-market ready.

Financial Position and Near-Term Outlook

Thyssenkrupp reaffirmed its full-year targets after releasing second-quarter figures on May 12. For fiscal 2025/2026, adjusted EBIT is expected at up to €900 million, and negative free cash flow before M&A should not exceed €600 million. Revenue guidance was trimmed to a range of minus 3% to flat. Available liquidity stands at €4.6 billion.

In the second quarter, order intake reached €10.6 billion and revenue came in at €8.4 billion, with adjusted EBIT of €198 million.

The group’s next scheduled report — the nine-month interim statement — will not appear until August. Until then, the Council’s formal approval of the steel tariffs and the market’s digestion of the HKM exit are likely to be the dominant share-price drivers. Meanwhile, Thyssenkrupp ranks ninth in the MDAX over the period from April 30 to May 29, with a 16.46% gain, trailing only eight stocks. Delivery Hero led the pack with an 80.48% surge.

Thyssenkrupp at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

On the operational front, Thyssenkrupp Polysius’s sustainable process technologies have been housed under a new subsidiary since May 1: Calvion GmbH, based in Ennigerloh, with around 40 employees developing oxyfuel applications and other CO?-reduction solutions for industrial customers.

Upcoming capital-market appearances include the Jefferies German & Swiss Corporate Conference on June 23–24 and the Baader Vermögensverwaltertag on June 25, 2026. With the stock now trading roughly 25% above its 50-day average and nearly double its 52-week low of €7.15 from March 30, the next few weeks will test whether the regulatory and structural tailwinds justify the premium.

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