TSMC Pact and Multi-Year Deals Signal a New Era for Micron as HBM4 Capacity Vanishes

Micron Technology has shattered another all-time high, powered by a combination of structural demand shifts and a product portfolio that stretches far beyond high-bandwidth memory. The stock recently touched a fresh 52-week high of €914.20 before climbing to around €919, marking a 12-month gain of roughly 915% and pushing the company’s market capitalisation above $1.2 trillion.

At the heart of the rally is a fundamental change in how memory is bought and sold. Customers are now locking in capacity over three-year agreements, a dramatic departure from the one-year norms of previous cycles. That shift, together with more rational capacity expansion by manufacturers, gives Micron far greater earnings visibility. Analyst Melissa Fairbanks of Raymond James recently doubled her price target to $1,100 while keeping an “Outperform” rating, citing this structural improvement and the expectation that gross margins will stabilise in the 50–60% range.

The immediate catalyst is the complete sell-out of all HBM production capacity for 2026 under multi-year contracts. Not a single gigabyte of high-bandwidth memory remains available. The star product is HBM4, a 36 GB module with 12 memory layers designed specifically for Nvidia’s Vera-Rubin platform. Already in mass production after deliveries began in the first calendar quarter of 2026, the module delivers more than 2.8 TB/s of bandwidth while consuming over 20% less power than its HBM3E predecessor. For the next generation, HBM4E, Micron is taking the unusual step of partnering with TSMC for the base dies, turning to the Taiwanese foundry’s sixth-generation 10 nm process with EUV lithography. The ramp for HBM4E is proceeding at double the speed of the HBM3E rollout, reflecting the urgency of AI inference workloads that now dominate data-centre spending.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Micron?

Micron used the Computex 2026 tradeshow to showcase a full stack of AI infrastructure memory. Highlights include the SOCAMM2, a 256 GB module that consumes one-third the space and power of conventional RDIMMs; a 256 GB DDR5 RDIMM built on 1?Gamma technology that reaches 9,200 MT/s while slashing power by over 40%; the PCIe Gen6 SSD 9650, the first commercial Gen6 drive to hit mass production; and the 6600 ION SSD, a 245 TB solution that frees up 82% of rack space and uses 50% less energy than comparable HDD systems.

The addressable HBM market is also expanding faster than anticipated. Micron now expects the total market to reach $100 billion by 2028, two years earlier than its previous forecast, as memory bandwidth replaces raw compute as the key bottleneck in AI performance. That tailwind has yet to be fully reflected in analyst consensus, which still carries an average price target of around $622 — well below the current share price — despite a “Strong Buy” rating.

On the financial front, the company’s second fiscal quarter of 2026 delivered revenue of $23.86 billion, a 196% jump from a year earlier, and non?GAAP earnings per share of $12.20 that comfortably beat expectations. Looking ahead to the third-quarter report on 24 June 2026, analysts project revenue of roughly $33.8 billion, a 263% year-over-year surge, and full-year EPS consensus of $58.87, supported by high-margin HBM contracts and the transition to DDR5 and PCIe Gen6 storage. The quarterly dividend was raised to $0.15 per share. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra, meanwhile, sold roughly 37,400 shares on 29 May 2026 at an average price of about $960 through a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan, retaining a direct stake of more than 380,000 shares.

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