TSMC’s Full Order Book Opens the Door for Rivals as It Pushes Through Price Hikes
Published on 06/19/2026 at 17:15 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. has found itself in an enviable yet precarious position: its advanced production lines are booked solid through 2026, leaving even its largest customers scrambling for alternatives. The world’s biggest chipmaker is leveraging this scarcity to push through price increases on its most advanced nodes, even as it races to expand capacity for the packaging technology that has become the semiconductor industry’s new bottleneck. Yet that very same capacity crunch is creating openings for competitors such as Samsung Electronics, as clients like Google and BYD explore secondary sources.
On the financial front, TSMC’s May 2026 consolidated net sales hit the equivalent of NT$416.98 billion, a 30.1% jump from a year earlier — keeping the first-five-month growth rate at an even 30.0%. Revenue for the first quarter of the year expanded by more than 35%, and management has lifted its full-year 2026 revenue growth forecast to above 30%, driven by insatiable demand for high-performance chips used in artificial intelligence. Net profit for the first quarter reached roughly $18 billion, comfortably beating analyst expectations. More than 1,600 institutional investors have recently increased their stakes in the company, whose market capitalisation now stands at about $2.4 trillion.
TSMC plans to use its market dominance to protect margins as capital spending climbs. Industry insiders say the foundry is considering a roughly 15% price increase for 3?nanometer wafers in the second half of 2026, with further hikes of 5% to 10% pencilled in for 2027. The goal is to sustain a long?term gross margin of 62.3% while funding capital expenditure of up to $56 billion this year. The pricing power is backed by a customer list that reads like a who’s who of tech: Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Broadcom, Marvell and MediaTek have already booked the bulk of available capacity. Those customers alone are expected to invest a combined $650 billion in AI hardware through end?2026.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TSMC?
The stock has responded accordingly. After closing at 403.50 euros on Thursday, shares climbed to 412.50 euros on Friday — a whisker away from the 52?week high of 414.00 euros. The equity has more than doubled over the past twelve months, gaining roughly 123%, and is up about 48% year?to?date. The relative strength index sits at 67.8 — strong but not yet in overbought territory — and the current price is around 47% above the 200?day moving average of 280 euros, underscoring the speed of the rally. TSMC also announced an increased quarterly dividend of $1.1136 per share, with the ex?dividend date expected in July 2026, coinciding with the next quarterly report.
The capacity constraints, however, are not a sign of weakness. Rather, they are forcing clients to diversify. Google is reportedly evaluating moving CPU and TPU production to Samsung Foundry from 2028 onward, while BYD has held talks with alternative providers for AI chips used in autonomous driving. AMD is also said to be considering Samsung for certain processors starting in 2028. Analysts stress that these moves reflect pure capacity limitations rather than any erosion of TSMC’s technological lead in process quality, yield or customer relationships. Samsung is picking up overflow business, not winning head?to?head defections.
The real bottleneck lies not in the silicon wafers themselves but in advanced packaging. TSMC’s CEO C.C. Wei told the annual general meeting that the company’s CoWoS (Chip?on?Wafer?on?Substrate) capacity is completely booked through end?2026. Market researcher TrendForce estimates TSMC can boost its monthly CoWoS capacity to 120,000–140,000 wafers in 2026, supplemented by 50,000–60,000 wafers from external packaging partners. The supply?demand gap, currently about 20%, is expected to narrow to roughly 10% by the end of next year. Meanwhile, TSMC is already developing the next?generation packaging technology, CoPoS, with a pilot production run slated for mid?2027. Nvidia’s Feynman platform is set to be the first customer — a sign that the company intends to keep its customers locked into its ecosystem even as it grapples with physical limits.
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