TSMC’s Resilience Tested as Goldman Pulls Back, but Arizona Green Light and Pricing Firepower Hold the Line
Published on 07/04/2026 at 18:18 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s shares weathered a double dose of headline risk last week, ending Friday at €396.00 after a 4.21% surge that erased early losses triggered by Goldman Sachs’ decision to drop the chipmaker from its Asia-Pacific conviction list. The episode underscored a market caught between tactical caution and the relentless gravitational pull of artificial-intelligence spending.
Goldman Sachs removed TSMC from its APAC Conviction List on 1 July 2026, citing valuation concerns and supply-chain nervousness ahead of mid-July quarterly results. Reports of insider selling added to the pressure, and the stock briefly retreated from the fresh 52-week high of €420.50 it had touched that same day. Yet the pullback lasted barely a session. Nomura and Barclays responded with sharp target increases, while the underlying demand picture from AI-infrastructure buildout remained robust. The rebound, analysts say, reflected profit-taking after a long rally rather than a change in fundamentals.
Far more consequential for the long-term outlook was the green light from Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs for an additional $20 billion in investment at TSMC’s Arizona complex, bringing the total approved outlay to $44 billion. The funds will go toward advanced packaging facilities and new 12-inch wafer fabs, as the company accelerates its diversification away from the home island. Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang was careful to note that the most cutting-edge production will stay in Taiwan, but the sheer scale of the US commitment signals confidence in the AI-driven demand cycle.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TSMC?
Washington is sweetening the deal. The US government has raised the investment tax credit for manufacturing capacity from 25% to 35%, providing a direct boost to the margins of TSMC’s growing American output. The move arrives just as the company’s US arm undergoes a leadership transition: Gina Proctor stepped down as treasurer of TSMC Arizona Corporation on 1 July, with a successor expected to be named shortly.
Pricing power adds another layer to the bullish thesis. Media reports indicate TSMC plans to raise prices for its most advanced chips by as much as 10%, leveraging a global foundry market share of around 75%. Analysts have started lifting their earnings forecasts accordingly, with some now projecting earnings per share of roughly $15.80 on a five-year horizon. To support the expansion, TSMC’s capital expenditure budget for 2026 is expected to hit $56 billion.
Not everything is going smoothly. Samsung is positioning itself as an alternative for clients such as Meta, which is reportedly considering switching some orders for next-generation AI chips to the South Korean foundry’s 2-nanometer process. Apple, however, remains firmly in TSMC’s camp, and the broader hedge-fund community—Goldman Sachs’ observation notwithstanding—continues to overweight AI beneficiaries, with TSMC at the centre of the megatrend.
Technically, the stock remains in a clear uptrend. Friday’s close of €396.00 sits well above both its 50-day moving average of €363.12 and its 200-day moving average of €289.70, even though it is still 5.83% below the 52-week peak. The year-to-date advance now stands at 45.05%, and the share price has more than doubled from the €194.40 low of twelve months ago. The annualised volatility of 55.23% is a reminder that the ride has become bumpier, but for now the combination of US fiscal incentives, price hikes, and unbroken AI demand keeps the narrative firmly in the bulls’ camp. All eyes are on the mid-July earnings report, where an upgrade to both the annual guidance and the investment plan is widely expected.
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