Tungsten’s Triple-Digit Rally Rewrites Almonty’s Numbers – but the Stock’s Pullback Tells a Cautious Tale

The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) has rocketed more than 260% since the start of the year to roughly $3,140 per metric tonne unit, handing Almonty Industries a financial boost that has radically altered its earnings trajectory. The company, once viewed primarily as a mine developer, is now proving its operating leverage: first-quarter gross revenue surged 221% to C$25.4 million even as production volumes at its Panasqueira mine in Portugal slipped. Operating mine profit soared to C$13.0 million from a mere C$0.8 million a year earlier, a stark illustration of how the price uplift has overwhelmed any output hiccups.

That price floor is no accident. Almonty’s CEO Lewis Black spent this week on a two-stop roadshow – first at the BofA Securities Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference in Miami, then at the Critical Minerals Forum – hammering home the message that Western supply chains for tungsten, a critical mineral for defence and advanced technology, remain dangerously over-reliant on China. The company’s own answer to that vulnerability is the Sangdong mine in South Korea, one of the largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits outside China, whose Phase 1 commissioning has now been completed.

Sangdong’s output looms large

At full capacity, Sangdong is expected to account for more than 80% of the world’s tungsten production outside China. That ambition is why analysts are rapidly raising their forecasts. Diamond Equity Research lifted its current-quarter earnings estimate to $0.14 per share from $0.12, and now projects full-year 2027 earnings of $1.23 per share – a signal that the market is pricing in a sustained contribution from the Korean mine rather than a one-off commodity spike.

The valuation gap, however, remains wide. Broker price targets range from Oppenheimer’s $19.00 to DA Davidson’s $25.00, with B. Riley sitting in between at $23.00. Almonty’s own share price on the Toronto Stock Exchange closed Thursday at C$25.12, a modest 0.4% discount to the top of that range. Yet a discounted cash flow model suggests the stock is trading at a 42.3% discount to a fair value of C$43.69, implying the market is still weighting execution risk heavily.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

A financial cushion and a new CFO

Almonty enters the ramp-up phase with a healthy balance sheet. As of March 31, 2026, it held C$259.9 million in cash and C$169.5 million in working capital, providing a substantial buffer for the Sangdong ramp and the development of the Gentung project in Montana. To oversee the financial strategy during this critical period, Jorge Beristain will join as chief financial officer on June 1, 2026.

The move to deepen financial bench strength comes as Almonty also shifts its corporate footprint. In April, the company relocated its headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, a strategic play to tighten ties with U.S. defence agencies, industrial partners, and policymakers. On the Critical Minerals Forum, Black debated with politicians and industry executives about export restrictions and procurement strategies, underscoring the geopolitical dimension of the tungsten market.

Market scepticism amid the rally

Despite the operational progress and the price tailwind, the stock has not been immune to profit-taking. Thursday’s close at C$25.12 represented a 12.90% decline over the past month, even as the year-to-date gain stood at a hefty 108.81%. The 4.66% advance on May 12, triggered by positive operational news and stronger financial metrics, offered only a temporary reprieve.

Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Almonty’s management has taken care to point out that non-cash charges from the revaluation of warrants and derivatives – a byproduct of the rising share price – do not affect liquidity. But the real test lies ahead. The speed with which Sangdong reaches its planned output will determine whether the earnings upgrades prove durable or whether the current valuation merely front-runs a promise that still needs to be delivered. As Black put it in a separate presentation this week, titled “No Team, No Tungsten, No Time,” the talent shortage in mining is as acute as the supply crunch itself. For investors, the message is equally blunt: in a market where every quarter counts, execution is the only currency that matters.

Ad

Almonty Stock: New Analysis - 15 May

Fresh Almonty information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Almonty analysis...

en | CA0203981034 | TUNGSTEN’S | boerse | 69341619 |