VanEck Semiconductor ETF Bounces Back After 9% Rout, But Geopolitical and AI Angst Persist
Published on 07/20/2026 at 18:35 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF clawed back some ground on Monday, rising 1.76% to €93.77 after a brutal weekly selloff that erased more than 9% from the fund. The move higher was led by a broad recovery among chipmakers, with AMD jumping roughly 4% after Rosenblatt upgraded the stock to its “Top Pick” and boosted its price target from $490 to $665. UBS quickly followed suit, raising its own target to $700.
Yet the bounce does little to erase the scars of the previous week. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had tumbled by over 9% after Chinese AI startup Moonshot unveiled its “Kimi K3” model, claiming comparable performance at a fraction of the cost of US rivals. The revelation prompted a market rethink, with Deutsche Bank analysts noting that investors are questioning whether the current wave of capital expenditure is justified if similar results can be achieved more cheaply. Adding to the unease, TSMC’s outlook signaled higher-than-expected investment, reinforcing fears of spiraling costs across the industry.
The ETF now sits 15.66% below its 52-week high of €111.18, which was touched as recently as June 30. Its 50-day moving average of €97.36 is still above the current price, suggesting the recovery from last week’s low remains in its early stages. Meanwhile, the 200-day average of €68.28 underscores just how far the sector has run — the fund is still up more than 37% from that long-term trendline.
Geopolitical jolts have added to the turbulence. Oil prices surged over 15% last week, with Brent crude breaching $90 a barrel after US military operations against targets in Iran following the deaths of two American soldiers. The VIX volatility index has climbed more than 22% from its mid-month trough to around 18.35, reflecting heightened uncertainty. The S&P 500 has been stuck near the 7,500 level for two months, having hit an all-time high in early June.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF?
Despite the selloff, UBS and Barclays are standing firm in their bullish view of the semiconductor space. UBS forecasts a 92% jump in operating profits this year for Philadelphia Semiconductor Index constituents, followed by another 40% gain in 2026. Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS’s global equities chief, argues that demand for AI computing power still far outstrips supply and that supply-chain bottlenecks will persist. Barclays sees no signs of panic, describing the recent selling as “passive trimming” rather than aggressive dumping. Both banks point out that most chip products for this year are already sold out.
That confidence is not shared equally across all markets. Asian chip stocks have taken a harder hit: South Korea’s Kospi index lost more than 4% on July 20 and now sits at 6,525, well off its year-high of 9,387. Samsung Electronics has dropped 34% from its 2025 peak, and SK Hynix has fallen 40%. In Japan, Kioxia is in freefall, wiping out billions in value. The VanEck ETF, heavily weighted toward TSMC and other global players, has felt the crosswinds: it lost about 5% last week and more than 14% over the past 30 days, marking its third consecutive weekly decline.
Taiwan Semiconductor, the fund’s largest holding, reported a 77% year-on-year profit jump but still saw its US-listed shares drop 3% in pre-market trading. Investors appeared to focus on the company’s increased full-year capital spending guidance rather than the robust operational numbers, echoing the broader debate over whether the industry’s massive investment cycle is sustainable.
Attention now shifts to the upcoming earnings season, with more than 80 S&P 500 companies reporting this week. Aggregate second-quarter profits for the index are estimated at roughly $707 billion, up 26% year-on-year. For chipmakers, the real test will come from cloud giants and AI infrastructure spenders — if they maintain elevated capex, it could reinforce the bull case for semiconductor stocks.
Technically, the ETF’s relative strength index stands at 41.9, neutral territory and neither oversold nor overbought. Year to date, the fund is still up nearly 73% despite the recent drawdown. The tension between optimistic analyst forecasts and mounting geopolitical and competitive headwinds leaves the sector in a delicate balancing act — one that next week’s earnings reports may help tip one way or the other.
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