VanEck Semiconductor ETF Rebounds 3% After Brutal Week, but Earnings Gauntlet Looms
Published on 07/21/2026 at 16:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF jumped 2.96 percent on Tuesday to €95.54, extending a recovery that began after one of the most punishing stretches for chip stocks this year. The bounce follows a five-session rout that dragged the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 9 percent lower, with the broader sector briefly flirting with bear-market territory after sliding more than 20 percent from its late-June record.
What sparked the selling? Two developments collided. First, Chinese AI startup Moonshot AI unveiled a model that it claims matches leading US systems at a fraction of the cost. Deutsche Bank analysts said the news triggered a re-evaluation of the industry's capital-spending plans, with investors questioning whether the current investment trajectory is sustainable if comparable performance can be delivered more cheaply. Second, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest chip foundry, raised its 2025 capex forecast to $60-64 billion from an earlier $52-56 billion. The jump, partly driven by higher equipment prices, intensified margin fears across the supply chain that the VanEck fund tracks.
But analysts on both sides of the Atlantic are pushing back against the notion that the selloff marks a fundamental turning point. UBS strategists described the 20 percent peak-to-trough drop as a pure "position adjustment" after a 90 percent rally since the start of the year — profit-taking, not a change in the growth story. JPMorgan's Mislav Matejka agreed, arguing that chip stocks should soon find a floor given the strength of earnings momentum. "Meaningful new production capacity won't come online until at least 2028," he noted, adding that the underlying supply-demand picture remains constructive.
The fund's own numbers tell a tale of two timeframes. Even after Tuesday's gains, the ETF trades 14.07 percent below its all-time high of €111.18 reached on June 30. Yet year-to-date it has still returned 79.35 percent. The 30-day annualized volatility reading of 59.28 percent underscores the market's lingering jitters, while the relative strength index has recovered from 42.9 to 46.9 — a neutral zone that suggests neither oversold exhaustion nor overbought excess.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF?
A comparable product, the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF, was up 99 percent year-to-date by mid-2026, highlighting how concentrated semiconductor bets amplify both the gains and the pain relative to broader tech indexes.
Tuesday's sector-wide strength was broad-based. Nvidia rose more than 2 percent, Advanced Micro Devices climbed 2 percent on bullish analyst price targets, and Broadcom and Intel also advanced thanks to upgrades for memory and equipment makers. In the US session, the Philadelphia Index added 2.11 percent, outpacing the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500, with Micron Technology surging 5.7 percent and SanDisk jumping 6 percent.
Geopolitical headwinds — including a tenth consecutive day of US airstrikes on Iranian targets — failed to derail the recovery. Schwab's head of derivative research noted that the Nasdaq-100 and the chip index had been widely viewed as oversold, making a technical rebound overdue. Strong capital-investment signals from Alphabet's upcoming earnings could add further support, he added.
That brings the focus to this week's earnings parade. Alphabet, Intel, Texas Instruments, and IBM are among the companies reporting, followed by Nvidia in late August. Investors are looking for confirmation that the massive AI spending by Big Tech is translating into revenue. The VanEck fund's top holdings — Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom, and Micron — have been swinging in lockstep between AI euphoria and valuation anxiety, and this concentration has magnified every move.
Strategists caution that Tuesday's rebound should be seen as a tentative stabilisation, not a definitive turn. The real test will be whether the ETF can reclaim its 50-day moving average of €97.34. That call may depend on Alphabet's commentary on its own capital expenditure plans — and whether the earnings season can quiet the doubts that Moonshot AI and TSMC's spending surge have stirred up.
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