Voestalpine’s Q1 Numbers Loom as EU Steel Tariffs and Bearish Calls Create a Wide Valuation Gap
Published on 07/21/2026 at 16:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Voestalpine will unveil its first-quarter results for the 2026/27 fiscal year on 5 August, providing the first hard evidence of whether the Austrian steelmaker can sustain a recovery that has already pushed its stock more than 17% higher year-to-date. Analysts expect earnings per share of €1.01, nearly double the €0.59 reported in the same period a year earlier, while revenue is projected to edge up 2.1% to €3.98 billion. Those estimates are built on a solid base: for the full year, the consensus calls for EPS of €3.67 versus €2.48 in 2025/26.
The most recent full-year results, covering the 2025/26 fiscal year that ended on 31 March, already showed a marked operational improvement. Revenue slipped to €15.1 billion from €15.7 billion, but EBITDA climbed to €1.5 billion from €1.3 billion and EBIT surged 59% to €724 million. Looking ahead, management has guided for EBITDA in a range of €1.60 billion to €1.85 billion for the current fiscal year. The Q1 report will be the first checkpoint for that ambition.
Trade policy has added a fresh tailwind since 1 July, when the European Union tightened its steel safeguard measures. Duty-free import quotas have been reduced to roughly 18.3 million tonnes annually, and any volumes exceeding that threshold now face a 50% tariff, double the previous 25% rate. For Voestalpine, a domestic producer, the move strengthens pricing power against cheap foreign supplies. Meanwhile, the company’s “greentec steel” transformation is proceeding: the first electric arc furnaces at Linz and Donawitz remain on track to begin operations in the first half of 2027, a milestone approved at the 1 July annual general meeting.
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Shareholders have also enjoyed a dividend hike. The payout was raised 25% to €0.75 per share for 2025/26, with the ex-dividend date on 9 July and payment completed by 14 July. Shortly after, management announced a new multi-year dividend model designed to provide a stable minimum distribution, insulating investors from the cyclical swings typical of the steel business.
That improved payout, combined with the tariff shield, has not, however, produced a consensus among analysts. J.P. Morgan’s Dominic O’Kane upgraded the stock from Underweight to Overweight in early July, lifting his price target from €40 to €50, citing the stronger EU trade protection. Deutsche Bank Research, also bullish, reiterated its Buy rating with a €60 target — the highest on the Street. At the opposite end, the Wiener Privatbank remains firmly bearish: analyst Nicolas Kneip kept his Sell rating and nudged his fair value only marginally from €41.50 to €42.10. The resulting target range of roughly €42 to €60 underscores how sharply opinions diverge on whether the cyclical and structural risks outweigh the near-term policy benefits.
The stock itself has recovered dramatically from its 52-week low of €23.48 reached in early August 2025, now trading at around €44.35 — an 89% rebound. That is still nearly 10% below the February high of €49.22, and annualised volatility remains elevated at 37%. With the first-quarter figures due in just over a week, the market will soon gauge whether the operational and political tailwinds are translating into earnings momentum strong enough to close the gap with the most optimistic analyst views — or whether the caution voiced by the bearish camp has more substance.
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