Volkswagen’s Market Paradox: Stakes Worth €44bn, Yet the Whole Group Is Valued at €35bn
Published on 07/09/2026 at 17:14 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
When Citigroup analysts ran the numbers, they arrived at a startling conclusion: Volkswagen’s majority holdings in Porsche and the Traton trucks business alone are worth roughly €44bn. Against that, the entire automotive group trades for just €35.2bn on the stock exchange. The arithmetic implies that investors ascribe a negative value to the company’s core operations — the Volkswagen passenger-car brand, its component plants, and the vast manufacturing network that has defined German industry for decades.
That valuation gap sits at the heart of the boardroom drama unfolding in Wolfsburg today, where the supervisory board is debating a sweeping restructuring plan that could reshape the conglomerate. CEO Oliver Blume is pushing for the kind of structural surgery that might finally unlock value: spinning off the core Volkswagen brand and the components division into legally independent entities, bringing them closer in structure to the already-listed Porsche and Traton.
But the path to that outcome is blocked by a familiar roadblock. Lower Saxony, the state that holds a 20% stake and a blocking minority in the 20-member supervisory board, has made clear through Minister President Olaf Lies that it will not support any move that undermines traditional co-determination rights. That political deadlock, analysts say, explains a large chunk of the market’s skepticism — and the resulting valuation discount.
The restructuring offensive extends far beyond corporate structure. Blume is putting up to 70,000 jobs on the line in Germany alone, with as many as 100,000 positions potentially at risk worldwide. Four plants — Hannover, Emden, Zwickau, and Neckarsulm — face possible closure. The IG Metall union has responded with a nationwide day of action, and workers in Wolfsburg are rallying outside the executive headquarters as the board convenes.
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Insiders suggest Lower Saxony is showing early signs of flexibility: it could accept the phase-out of individual factories, provided that Volkswagen preserves as many jobs as possible. Any final decision, however, will test the fragile truce between management, labor, and the state.
Meanwhile, the company’s technology ambitions suffered a setback. Volkswagen’s software subsidiary Cariad has confirmed the end of the “Automated Driving Alliance” with Bosch, after roughly €1.5bn had already been sunk into the project. Internal assessments judged the jointly developed technology as not competitive. VW is now scouting for a new partner, with Mobileye — already working with the group on highway assistants since last year — emerging as the front-runner, alongside British startup Wayve.
The market’s reaction has been unforgiving. Volkswagen shares fell 1.89% on Thursday to €71.50, nudging dangerously close to the 52-week low of €69.20 set on July 1. The stock has now lost nearly 32% since the start of the year, and trades a full 24% below its 200-day moving average of €93.87. The relative strength index sits at 32.1, deep in oversold territory, though strategists warn that alone offers no automatic buy signal.
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If the supervisory board approves the restructuring plan — a possibility that insiders say cannot be ruled out by the end of Thursday’s session — the stock is likely to enter a period of extreme volatility. Should the board block the measures, the conflict between the CEO, labor representatives, and the state will only intensify, leaving the gap between Volkswagen’s intrinsic value and its market price wide open for months to come.
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