Xiaomi Caught in a Vice: Memory Costs Soar Fivefold, EV Division Bleeds $5,600 per Car as Stock Hits New Low
Veröffentlicht: 26.06.2026 um 15:17 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Xiaomi’s share price has slumped to a fresh 12-month low of €2.37, accelerating a selloff that has wiped nearly 45% off the stock since the start of the year. The Chinese technology group is battling two simultaneous headwinds: an explosion in memory-chip costs that is gutting its core smartphone margins, and a money-losing electric vehicle venture that is burning cash faster than a five-alarm fire.
Management’s response has been characteristically aggressive. A market-based share buyback program of up to 20 billion Hong Kong dollars has already seen the company repurchase 30.1 million of its own shares since early June. Yet the buying has done little to stem the tide. Short sellers now hold positions equivalent to roughly 9% of the free float, and over the past 30 days the stock has tumbled more than 24%. The relative strength index has plunged to 17.7, deep in oversold territory.
The structural problem lies in the semiconductor supply chain. The global artificial-intelligence boom has sucked up huge amounts of memory-chip production capacity, with industry heavyweights such as Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron prioritizing high-margin HBM and AI processors over standard DRAM for consumer electronics. Xiaomi President Lu Weibing has revealed that smartphone memory prices have roughly quintupled since mid-2025, while the cost of TV display memory has increased tenfold. The impact is especially brutal on Xiaomi’s low-end smartphones: 62% of units sell for less than $200, leaving almost no room to absorb the component cost inflation.
The damage is already evident in the numbers. Adjusted net profit for the first quarter of 2026 crashed 43% to 6.07 billion yuan, while smartphone shipments dropped 19.2% to 33.8 million units — the steepest decline among the world’s top five brands. Goldman Sachs expects the second quarter to be even worse: adjusted net profit is forecast to halve to 5.4 billion yuan, with core smartphone and AIoT revenues (excluding the EV and AI segments) falling 23% year-on-year. The bank has trimmed its full-year profit estimate by 12% but nonetheless maintains a buy rating with a 12-month price target of HK$40.
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Jefferies takes a more pessimistic view, assigning an “underperform” rating and a target of HK$25.49. The brokerage also doubts Xiaomi can meet its ambitious EV delivery target of 550,000 vehicles this year. Through the end of May, cumulative deliveries stood at 150,317 units, meaning the company would need to average roughly 57,500 cars per month from June through December — nearly 15% above its previous monthly record of 50,000 units. Jefferies has trimmed its own forecast to 495,000 vehicles.
The auto division is a major drain. In the first quarter it posted an operating loss of 3.1 billion yuan, equivalent to about $5,600 lost on each vehicle handed over. Deliveries in May slipped to 32,700 units, an 11% decline from April, and the full-year target is now looking increasingly stretched.
Xiaomi is spending heavily in an attempt to engineer a turnaround. Research and development outlays jumped 33.4% in the first quarter to 9.0 billion yuan, and the company plans to invest 40 billion yuan in R&D this year alone, with 16 billion earmarked for artificial intelligence. A new HyperOS platform will launch in China this summer, and a flagship smartphone refresh is planned for September 2026. Yet market-watchers see little relief before the memory-cost cycle turns, with high prices for standard DRAM expected to persist at least through the end of 2027.
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Goldman Sachs is pinning its hopes on a third-quarter rebound, arguing that sequential profit growth should resume once the inventory adjustments are complete. Whether that scenario plays out may become clearer on August 26, when Xiaomi reports its second-quarter results. Given the mounting headwinds, the bar for a positive surprise is set extremely low — but the memory-cost vice is not loosening its grip any time soon.
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