XRP’s Summer of Fate: Senate Clarity Act and Fed Master Account Decision Loom Over Depressed Token Price

Two regulatory flashpoints are set to define XRP’s trajectory in the weeks ahead, even as the token wrestles with a bearish price structure and a mounting supply overhang. The US Senate is expected to vote on the CLARITY Act by mid-June or as early as the July 4 target, while a Trump executive order compels the Federal Reserve to rule on Ripple’s Master Account application within 90 days. Yet the market, fixated on the here and now, has pushed XRP to near 1.30 USD — roughly 30% below where it started the year and well under every major moving average.

Ripple’s monthly lockup release injected another wave of supply on the day the primary article was written: 1 billion XRP worth about 1.35 billion USD came out of escrow. The headline figure sounds dramatic, but the net effect is far smaller. Ripple has historically re-locked 600–800 million of those tokens into new multi-year escrows, limiting the actual increase in circulating supply to somewhere between 200 and 400 million XRP. The mechanism, in place since December 2017, was designed to eliminate sudden supply shocks through predictability.

On-chain data, however, suggests that institutional players are using the weakness to accumulate. On May 31, roughly 22.8 million XRP first flowed into exchanges — the largest single-day exchange inflow of the year — only to be followed by a net withdrawal of 25.24 million tokens. Analysts interpret this V-shaped pattern as retail capitulation followed by professional buying. The same institutional appetite shows up in the ETF space: US spot XRP products held 775.4 million tokens by the end of the first quarter, representing 1.26% of the circulating supply. Morgan Stanley, in a recent SEC filing, disclosed positions in both the Volatility Shares XRP ETF and the Grayscale XRP ETF. Total ETF inflows topped 1.41 billion USD.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?

The regulatory catalyst that could unlock further institutional demand is the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in mid-May by a 15–9 vote, with Democrats Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks crossing the aisle. It would formally classify XRP as a digital commodity, shifting oversight from the SEC to the CFTC — the same agency that regulates oil, gold and wheat. A full Senate passage requires 60 votes, and outstanding issues include enforcement language and an ethics clause demanded by several Democrats. Coinbase, Circle and Ripple are among the bill’s backers.

A second, less heralded catalyst comes from the executive branch. On May 19, President Trump signed an executive order instructing the Fed to decide within 90 days on Ripple’s application for a Master Account. If granted, it would let Ripple process payments directly over Fedwire and FedNow, cutting out the correspondent banks that currently act as intermediaries. Many XRP observers have overlooked this infrastructure play, but it could reshape the token’s utility.

Meanwhile, the XRP Ledger’s fundamentals continue to strengthen independently of the price. Average daily transactions rose 35% in the first quarter to 2.48 million. The tokenized asset base on the XRPL swelled from 991 million USD at the start of the year to 3.5 billion USD. In early May, JPMorgan, Mastercard, Ondo Finance and Ripple completed the first cross-border tokenized US Treasury redemption on the network in under five seconds. The DTCC, which clears over 3.7 trillion USD in transactions annually, added Ripple Prime to its participant roster. On the Asian front, SBI Holdings — Ripple’s largest external shareholder with roughly 9% — filed for Japan’s first spot XRP ETF, with approvals expected in fiscal 2028.

Despite these positive undercurrents, XRP ended May 6.2% lower. The token is 21% below its 200-day moving average and nearly 63% below its 52-week peak of 3.56 USD. Technical analysts see 1.40 USD as the key resistance for any near-term recovery, with support lying between 1.25 and 1.27 USD. The market appears to be waiting for hard legislative and regulatory clarity rather than interpretive statements. The joint SEC-CFTC communiqué from March that deemed XRP a digital commodity was non-binding — a point underscored by the price’s refusal to rally. Now the Senate vote and the Fed’s impending decision will determine whether the institutional momentum finally translates into a price recovery.

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