XRP Stuck in Neutral as CLARITY Act Clock Ticks Three Years After Torres Ruling
Veröffentlicht: 15.07.2026 um 06:54 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
XRP is clinging to the $1.10 handle, but the real action is unfolding in Washington. A deadline of August 7 looms for the CLARITY Act — a bill that would cement the token’s legal status as a commodity under US law. Without a House vote before the summer recess, the measure may well slip into 2026, leaving XRP’s regulatory foundation reliant on a court ruling that could be overturned by a future administration.
The legislative arithmetic looks tight. Prediction markets have pegged the bill’s passage probability at roughly 43%, down from more optimistic levels earlier this year. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, but 60 votes are needed for cloture. Two GOP senators — Josh Hawley and Rand Paul — are considered certain “no” votes, trimming the base to 51. That means at least seven to nine Democrats would have to cross party lines; only two are currently locked in. Three unresolved sticking points, including one related to President Trump’s personal crypto holdings, continue to keep the rest at arm’s length.
A key hearing in the House on July 17 will test whether those disputes can be resolved. If Senate leadership does not schedule a floor vote in the final week of July, the assumption on Capitol Hill will be that the bill has been shelved until next year. For XRP, the stakes go beyond political theater. A statutory classification as a commodity would give banks and custodians the legal certainty they need to build long-term business around the token, turning Ripple’s current string of partnerships into durable demand.
That legal certainty seemed close three years ago. On July 13, 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP sales to retail investors on public exchanges were not securities transactions — only institutional sales by Ripple violated securities law. The token surged more than 70% in a single day, exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken re-listed it, and within two years, asset managers including Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and Grayscale had launched XRP-based ETFs. A final civil penalty of $125 million was imposed on Ripple in August 2024, and after both sides dropped appeals in August 2025, the legal record closed: XRP itself is not a security.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
Yet the price has not rewarded the clarity. At around $1.10, the token is trading nearly 70% below its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65 and only 8.7% above its most recent 52-week low of $1.01, touched in late June. Year-to-date losses stand at 41.38%, and over the past twelve months the decline is 62.77%. The 50-day moving average sits at $1.15 and the 200-day at $1.44 — the latter implying XRP is more than 23% below its medium-term trend. The relative strength index of 47.3 suggests neither oversold nor overbought conditions; the market is squarely in wait-and-see mode.
Ripple has not been idle. The company sealed a strategic partnership with South Korean custodian BDACS, allied with tokenization platform Ctrl Alt to support Dubai Land Department’s real-estate tokenization project, and brought BNY Mellon on as primary custodian for the RLUSD stablecoin reserves. It also completed the acquisition of Standard Custody & Trust Company in June 2024, bolstering its regulatory credentials. Forbes ranked XRP fourth among the top ten cryptocurrencies in its July 2026 list — behind only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB — citing real-world use, market size, and trading activity.
But institutional inflows via ETFs have been steady rather than transformative, and the token remains range-bound between support at $1.00–$1.06 and resistance at $1.18–$1.20. Analysts tracking the asset since the SEC case ended now point to product adoption rather than legal risk as the primary catalyst. XRP’s original pitch — cheap, fast cross-border payments — is still its core differentiator, but the competitive landscape is crowded.
XRP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Two scenarios now compete ahead of the August deadline. A breakthrough on the CLARITY Act could clear the $1.20 resistance zone and open the path toward $1.30 and later $1.50–$1.65, with the limited free float amplifying any breakout. A failure to advance would likely extend the familiar sideways pattern that has defined the past several months. Either way, the next few weeks will determine whether XRP’s legal certainty finally translates into price momentum — or whether the waiting game continues into another year.
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