ZKB's Overweight Call on Partners Group Defies the Market's Foreboding Over Evergreen Redemptions
Published on 07/18/2026 at 21:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Zurich Cantonal Bank analyst Daniel Regli stuck with his "overweight" rating on Partners Group on July 17, arguing the market had overreacted to the asset manager's half-year update. The stock edged up 1.56% to close at €743.20 on Friday, but that did little to erase a year-to-date decline of nearly 30% — or the 38.76% gap from the 52-week high set in August 2025.
Regli's conviction flies in the face of a narrative dominated by redemption caps and fee compression. The trigger for the latest sell-off was the disclosure that redemption requests in the $8.6 billion Global Value SICAV, one of Partners Group's largest evergreen funds, reached 9.8% of net asset value in the second quarter. That is almost double the 5% contractual threshold at which the firm is entitled to limit payouts. Partners Group pulled that lever, leaving investors who sought near-term liquidity queued up rather than cashed out.
The redemption squeeze sits awkwardly alongside a headline-grabbing fundraising performance. Partners Group collected $16 billion in new client commitments during the first half of 2026, a record for any six-month period. Assets under management swelled to $186 billion as of June 30, up from $174 billion a year earlier. Management reaffirmed its full-year gross demand guidance of $26 billion to $32 billion.
Yet the quality of earnings is under scrutiny. Performance fees accounted for less than 20% of revenue in the first half, well below the long-term target range of 25% to 40%. For the full year, the company is guiding toward the lower end of that band. Chief Executive David Layton acknowledged the shortfall and flagged a debate at the next board meeting on whether the firm should prioritize share buybacks or higher dividends — a capital-allocation question that has taken on added urgency as fee income softens.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Partners Group?
The redemption headwinds are not expected to vanish quickly. Management calculates that net asset growth will be reduced by 1 to 2 percentage points in the second half of 2026 and throughout 2027 as a result of elevated redemptions in mature evergreen vehicles. That timeline transforms what might otherwise be a blip into a multi-year drag.
Operationally, Partners Group has not paused its deal-making. Earlier this month it invested £260 million in a UK rail rolling-stock leasing platform. Late June saw it acquire stakes in a global commercial aviation leasing portfolio from Avenue Capital Group. On June 26, it launched the "B Residences" strategy — a luxury residential tower in Miami developed in partnership with watchmaker Breitling. The firm also scored a notable exit from atNorth, a pan-Nordic data-center platform, securing an annualized return of over 30% for clients, or 2.5 times invested capital.
The market has priced in a great deal of pessimism. The stock trades just 8.21% above its 52-week low of €686.80, hit on June 26 — the day after Partners Group first imposed redemption restrictions on several private-equity funds, triggering a single-day plunge of more than 16%. Institutional investors make up more than 80% of the fund base, a structure that normally buffers against panic selling.
Partners Group at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next concrete test will be the full interim report, due on September 1. Until then, the key metric to watch is the performance-fee ratio through the third quarter. If it stabilizes near the lower end of the target range, Regli's call may prove prescient. If the redemption pressure spreads to more evergreen vehicles, the stock could revisit its June trough.
Ad
Partners Group Stock: New Analysis - 18 July
Fresh Partners Group information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
