Adidas's Record Quarter Comes With a Tariff Refund Attached — and a Tougher Question for Investors
Published on 10/26/2026 at 15:33 | Editorial boerse-global.de
When Adidas reports final third-quarter figures on Thursday, the headline numbers will already be familiar. What analysts and shareholders will be probing is how much of the record performance came from selling shoes — and how much arrived courtesy of Washington.
The Herzogenaurach-based company published preliminary results on 20 October showing revenue up 9% to €7,252 million for the three months through September 2026, a quarterly record. Operating profit climbed 37% to €1,008 million, outpacing the top line by a wide margin. Gross margin reached 54.3%.
Those gains did not come from trading alone. Adidas booked roughly €200 million in refunds tied to US customs duties during the quarter, a one-off boost sitting alongside underlying growth. Separating the two is now the central task for anyone trying to gauge the durability of the improvement.
A rival's warning lands first
Sentiment around the stock had already been rattled before the preliminary release. Deckers Outdoor cut its full-year guidance on Thursday evening, and according to dpa-AFX the downgrade weighed on Adidas shares as well. The US footwear maker pointed to soft consumer demand and weaker sales of its Hoka sneakers and Ugg boots.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Adidas?
The distinction matters. Deckers' warning signals pressure across the broader athletic-footwear market; it says nothing specific about Adidas's own order book. Adidas's preliminary figures, after all, showed both growth and higher profitability. Still, the episode put demand risk back on the agenda just as investors were digesting the upside surprise.
Guidance raised — but not on the top line
Adidas now expects operating profit of about €2.5 billion for the full year 2026, up from the roughly €2.3 billion previously flagged. Currency-neutral revenue growth guidance was left untouched at 9–10%, meaning the upgrade reflects profitability rather than faster expansion.
Embedded in that higher profit target is a deliberate choice: Adidas plans to plough around €100 million back into initiatives during the fourth quarter aimed at strengthening its operating leverage down the road. The company is not passing the entire windfall to shareholders in the form of a bigger earnings outlook — it is spending some of it now in the hope of a larger payoff later.
Two analysts, two readings
The sell-side has drawn different conclusions from the same set of numbers. Citigroup's Monique Pollard lifted her price target to €211 from €200 on Wednesday, citing strong cost control, and trimmed her expenditure estimates accordingly. Her upgrade followed the company's raised guidance.
Adidas at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
UBS's Robert Krankowski was more guarded, keeping a "Neutral" rating and a €160 target. Stripping out the US tariff refunds, he noted, operating profit growth matched his expectations. Given the challenging trading environment, he continues to question next year's gross margins.
That split captures the tension running through the Adidas story. A strong reported profit and a sustainably higher earnings base are not the same thing, and the final quarterly report — scheduled for 29 October 2026 — is where the company will have its chance to argue the case that its underlying business, not the customs rebate, did the heavy lifting.
Ad
Adidas Stock: New Analysis - 26 October
Fresh Adidas information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
